In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. This week, we’ve included China into our table, broken US and German vaccinations down by manufacturers, and we have started to monitor vaccination rollouts against cases and equity performance.
On the details:
Global Outlook: This week, an average of 19.7mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 3% WoW. The majority of countries expanded rollouts, and on a population-adjusted basis, Europe is now vaccinating at a faster pace than the US and UK (Chart 1). However, with vaccination rates dropping once again in the US, the gap between DM and EM rollouts has shrunk (Chart 2). In all, 8.4% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 7.8% last week, and an estimated 6.6% have vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19.
Share of Population Vaccinated: The countries farthest along in their vaccination rollouts are mostly in DM. They are also, however, more likely to be recording a higher number of cases per 100k (Charts 3 & 4). The US, Canada, and Germany, for example, have vaccinated between 32-46% of their populations with at least one dose, placing them in the top 20th percentile globally. They have also recorded between 80-130 cases per 100k over the last week, putting them in the top half of countries on our list. Meanwhile, many EM countries such as South Korea, Hong Kong and Indonesia have had slow starts on the vaccine front, but have generally kept cases under control. This is not the case for India, Brazil, Argentina and Colombia, who find themselves in the bottom right quadrant, and are therefore still at risk of major Covid-related disruptions.
Doses: In terms of absolute vaccination numbers, China is administering the most doses every day (7.6mn), followed by the EU (2.9mn) and India (2.1mn). Meanwhile, the Philippines, Japan and Greece have experienced the largest WoW increases. And, all four countries at the top of the list have seen average daily vaccinations fall.
Manufacturers: Not all countries break down doses by manufacturer, but the US and Germany do (Chart 5). For both, Pfizer has been the main vaccine of choice over the last week, administering 8.8mn and 3.4mn doses, respectively. This represents between 60-70% of total doses administered in each country over the last seven days. The J&J vaccine, on the other hand, accounted for fewer than 5% of doses.
Immunity: The majority of European countries are now set to reach herd immunity by August 2021. Only a handful of non-EU countries will reach the same target in 2021. These include; China, the US, the UK, Canada, and Chile. Meanwhile, countries like the Czech Republic and Hungary may reach the 80% immunity target quicker given that a large population share have had the virus over the last six months. Reaching immunity quicker will be crucial for economic recoveries – there exists a strong positive correlation between equity performance and vaccination rollouts (Chart 6).
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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