Summary
- The selloff last week was less about UK turmoil but rather the growing weight of inflation and recession risks.
- With the S&P 500 now 4% below our fair value measure, we expect it to trade in a range for now pending the start of 3Q earnings season.
- The consumer discretionary sector took several hits last week, with poor outlooks coming from Nike, Carnival Corp, and CarMax.
- The big earnings report this week will be Biogen as it hopefully provides more color on its new Alzheimer drug. And five consumer staples companies should provide new clues on how consumers are dealing with inflation.
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