Don’t Cry For Me Argentina…Again?
(2 min read)
Apparently, the 25% correction in the ARS vs. the USD that we were expecting by the beginning of the week was not enough for the markets as some analysts and investors are now anticipating a first round victory for the Fernandez-Fernandez formula. The Argentine peso has lost approximately 40% in just three days after the results of the primaries, and is now at ARS 63/USD, while Argie CDS were marked at 2,720 bps, up from Friday’s close of 1,017. According to IHS Markit, given the current level of the 5-yr CDS the probability of an Argentine government debt default is now 78% in the next five years...
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