Does Jackson Hole Matter for Ethereum?
- By Bilal Hafeez and Dalvir Mandara
- 9 min read
Summary
Trading View (next 2-4 weeks): We are bearish-neutral ethereum.
Investment View (next 1-3 years): We like to be long ethereum.
Macro
- History suggests correlations between ethereum and major markets are set to change.
- We expect the Fed to hike more than the market is currently pricing.
- The probability of recession within the next year has risen to above 75% – its highest level since before the dot-com crash.
- The near-term risk bounce is facing into a more hawkish Fed alongside elevated macro-political risks from US/China tensions.
On-Chain/Flow Signals
- Our metrics remained mixed this week: two bullish signals, three bearish, and two neutral.
Overall View
- The macro backdrop remains bearish, while our on-chain/flow signals bullish, our overall view is bearish-neutral ethereum (Chart 1).
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