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By Caroline Grady 05-03-2020

COVID-19 De-globalisation Shock

(2 min read)
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COVID-19 supply chain disruptions will abruptly end the nascent recovery in global trade. The demand shock from quarantines and other preventative measures will amplify this as imports compress. Last year’s annual decline in trade volumes will likely be repeated and a third consecutive year of slowing global GDP growth appears unavoidable. Gradual yet potentially prolonged de-globalisation is real. Asia has so far borne the brunt of the trade decline, but we expect its effects soon to become evident in Europe also. 
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