By Manan Shah 21-04-2020

Consensus GDP Tracker

(6 min read)
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The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook projects a 3% contraction in the global economy this year. This is an unprecedented decline and a 6.3pp downgrade from the January forecasts. A rebound to 5.8% growth is expected in 2021, assuming the policy support in place proves effective, but this still leaves a huge cumulative loss in global output.  

We drill down into quarterly consensus forecasts for the major economies where, like the IMF, forecasters have been rapidly revising GDP growth projections lower. Over the past month forecast downgrades have accelerated as the scale of the coronavirus pandemic rapidly became evident (Table 1).  

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