Austria Enters Lockdown, But Who Is Next?
- By Sam van de Schootbrugge
- 3 min read
What Is Happening in Austria?
Austria has entered a 20-day full lockdown and ordered compulsory Covid-19 vaccination from 1 February 2022. Cases in the country are up 32% WoW – 88,000 have been recorded over the last seven days. Deaths have also crept above 50 per day, the highest since February, but still far behind the 200 of December 2020 (Chart 1).
Hospitalisations are also lower than during the last wave but have increased 20% WoW and 200% MoM (Chart 2). Austria now has one of the highest hospitalisation rates per million in Europe (Chart 3). This excludes Eastern European countries, where vaccination programmes have notoriously struggled to attract arms. Hungary currently has one of the highest hospitalisation rates globally.
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What Is Happening in Austria?
Austria has entered a 20-day full lockdown and ordered compulsory Covid-19 vaccination from 1 February 2022. Cases in the country are up 32% WoW – 88,000 have been recorded over the last seven days. Deaths have also crept above 50 per day, the highest since February, but still far behind the 200 of December 2020 (Chart 1).
Hospitalisations are also lower than during the last wave but have increased 20% WoW and 200% MoM (Chart 2). Austria now has one of the highest hospitalisation rates per million in Europe (Chart 3). This excludes Eastern European countries, where vaccination programmes have notoriously struggled to attract arms. Hungary currently has one of the highest hospitalisation rates globally.
As the recent developments in Austria show, Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg is no longer prepared to tolerate an indefinite rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths. His intolerance stems from concern over the country’s vaccination rollouts. Yet Austria does not stand out as a strong underperformer. Around 64% of the population have received two doses, more than in the US (Table 1). And with a booster programme underway, effective immunity is roughly 52% – right on the EU average (Table 1, Chart 4).
Austria’s situation suggests countries with similar tolerance levels, vaccination rates and local transmissions will soon face similar restrictions. The reproduction number (the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population) is higher in Hungary, Poland, Belgium, and Switzerland, with Germany, the Czech Republic and Spain close behind. All apart from Belgium and Spain have immunity levels similar to or lower than Austria.
Does Immunity Matter?
Israel’s booster programme has increased population immunity above 56%, and the country now has one of the lowest R-numbers globally. France has similar immunity levels, but cases are up 42% WoW and deaths have also risen. Israel only experienced an equivalent level of transmission when immunity dropped below 45%.
Cross-country heterogeneity appears less heavily linked to immunity than first thought. One suggestion is that a new variant is circulating among EU countries. This could explain Austria’s caution and, if true, could see other EU countries with higher vaccine immunity levels adopt similar caution.
Keep an eye on Spain. Their vaccination rollout was particularly successful, with 80% of the population fully vaccinated (Table 1). The booster programme has kept immunity above 60% and cases have not picked up notably (Chart 6). The next few weeks will indicate how protected the EU is against the latest wave.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a Macro Research Analyst at Macro Hive, currently completing his PhD in international finance. He has a master’s degree in economic research from the University of Cambridge and has worked in research roles for over 3 years in both the public and private sector.