This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here.
Petition Impossible
Almost three million people have signed a petition calling for a fresh General Election. Just seventeen more and it will be at the number of voters who refused to back Labour at the last election…
The power to call an election lies with PM Starmer alone (although in theory the King can refuse to dissolve parliament). In short, unless he suddenly feels the urge to emulate this year’s political titans (Sunak, Macron and Yousaf) and throw his lot in with the voters at his polling nadir, a petition alone will not drive an election.
Losing their Commons majority would probably be required to force such a move. But as Labour’s majority is 85 MPs, even an unprecedented number of bi-elections or floor-crossings is unlikely to prevent them passing policy. However, this being Grey Swan time, nothing is inconceivable. And with that in mind, probably the most likely (or only possible?) route to a 2025 election would be a party split.
Parliamental Mathematics
The obvious candidates for peeling away from the Labour party would be Corbyn’s die-hards from the far left (the Socialist Campaign Group). However, Starmer has done an effective job of neutering such a threat. Only 19 Labour MPs now sit in that group.
While definitive numbers for groups are hard to come by, two alliances might have the requisite backing: Labour Friends of Israel and Labour Friends of Palestine and the Middle East. Each group reportedly had c.100 members or more in the last parliament, with some overlap. Given there are twice as many Labour MPs now, each group would have more than enough seats to lose Labour the majority should they suddenly choose to split from the party.
Middle Eastern Promises
The question is whether there is any reason why they would. The issue of Israel/Gaza is a highly contentious one. The current hot conflict that began after the 7 October attacks has already driven rebellion against the party whip on votes thereon, and it cost them seats in the election. Could there be a sufficient crescendo to actually drive a party split though?
ICC What You Are Doing…
The ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu is one possible driver. The official party line is that they would carry out their responsibilities in line with being a signatory to the ICC (i.e. arrest him). If they failed to do so, that could cause a large break within the party. It seems unlikely Netanyahu will visit the UK soon, but other senior members of Israel’s military do, and there is always a risk a warrant is issued for one while they are in Blighty.
Regime Change (for the UK)
Alternatively, the invasion of Iraq still hangs heavy over the UK Labour party. A similar intervention could be sufficient for Labour MPs to throw their majority to the wind. Obviously, there is very little desire within the UK to go to war, and indeed there are no obvious candidates for ‘regime change’ that have been recently mooted. However, more hawkish US policy under Trump versus Iran could cause a snowballing escalation that leads to war.
Starmer is unlikely to want to barrel into such a war behind Trump (he does not have Bush Jr’s charm). But if Iran attacks the US and NATO Article 5 is triggered, he might have no choice.
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