Bilal Hafeez
This is the second of our two-part Grey Swan series for 2026. It follows on from yesterday’s release – Part I: Who Really Runs 2026? AI, Farage, Liverpool and OMEC. Part II: Macro on the Brink? Fed Whiplash, China’s Reset and Japan’s Debt Trap 6. Japan Debt Crisis This piece argues Japan, not the US […]
Macro Hive
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. A Big Policy Reversal So far, the BoJ has been able to anchor inflation expectations, but that could all change in 2026. On the external front, the US’s tariffs […]
Liang Ding
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. NPC to Set a Growth Target, Boosting Sentiment The IMF and the World Bank predicted China’s 2026 GDP growth at 4.2% in October. Economists from leading local companies […]
Antonio Del Favero
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. Fed – From Easing to Hiking Consensus Enters 2026 Dead Wrong Markets expect the Fed to cut rates to 3% as labour markets cool and inflation markets price […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. The FFR Goes to Zero The first signs of trouble were subtle. No one saw the coming downturn. The combination of strong initial GDP growth and weak employment […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. The Debt Crisis Investors Aren’t Positioned For To some extent, following the leverage is the main task of investors. Before the Global Financial Crisis, the leverage was in housing […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. A Historic Liverpool Revival in 2026 Everyone loves to kick a team when it is down – especially Liverpool FC. Their collapse in the 2025/26 season has been dramatic. […]
Mariam Khan
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. A China-Led OMEC Reshapes 2026 Geopolitics China’s near monopoly on the processing of critical minerals (including rare earth elements) has been a successful tool to fend off aggressive […]
Viresh Kanabar
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. Gold to Lose Its Shine in 2026? Gold’s success is not guaranteed, and we believe there is a credible path for it to trade down to $3,000/oz in […]
Benjamin Ford
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. Farage’s Tenure as PM Begins in 2026, Not 2029! The Autumn Budget is in. Taxes, taxes, taxes was the theme tune. Admittedly, not the catchiest, but eight Oasis […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2026 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. A World Heading Toward Chronic Compute Shortages The bubble talk of 2025 has been that tech companies are building data centres to nowhere, AI is incestuous amongst tech […]
Bilal Hafeez
It’s that time of year when we unveil our Grey Swans for 2026. This marks our seventh annual edition, and it has become a market fixture – spawning many imitators but none matching our creativity. We’re humble enough not to claim we can predict Black Swans, which by definition are true unknown unknowns. But we […]
Macro Hive
New Year, New Risks Threats of nuclear war, Elon in government and a (brief) coup in South Korea – 2024 has already pushed the boundaries on grey swans: those massive, almost impossible to predict events. So, in our annual assessment of possible grey swans for 2025, we go the extra mile in stretching the imagination. […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Time for Policymakers to Delegate? The last four years have been a torrid time for central banking. The Fed […]
Liang Ding
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Dragon Years With Mixed Feelings The Dragon symbolizes power and holds an esteemed place in Chinese culture. Yet Chinese […]
Bilal Hafeez, Liang Ding
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Dollar Dominance in Decline? The US dollar has been the dominant reserve currency held by central banks worldwide since […]
Richard Jones
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Football Focus My Grey Swan this year focuses on the plight of Manchester City. My low probability, maximum impact […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. DOGE Steps Up a Gear The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cannot be faulted for not trying hard enough. […]
Henry Occleston
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Could Germany Become the Eurozone’s Savior? Eurozone integration never moves faster than it absolutely must. However, its greatest developments […]
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