Football Focus
Football is fast becoming a theme for my Grey Swans. Last year’s was on the Magpies. This year? There are several tempting possibilities.
I looked at a couple of scenarios – Manchester City winning the treble again, or Aston Villa winning the Premier League. The odds on the former, between 14/1 and 16/1, were too short, and the odds of the latter at 66/1 were too long.
I then did what any self-respecting football fan should never do – I looked at the odds for the club I support (for my sins, Arsenal).
And, I’ve gone really ambitious, looking at the prospect of an Arsenal Champions League/Premier League double.
The bookies price this at 25/1 and 28/1, which is appropriate for a Grey Swan scenario! So, here goes my case.
Arsenal Top the EPL Table, After an Uncertain Start
Arsenal are currently topping both the Premier League and their Champions League group. In domestic terms, for the second season in a row, after 14 games played, this is familiar territory.
There is a difference, though.
Last season, the Gunners exploded out of the blocks, topping the table early and staying there for most of the season.
This season, Arsenal have started slowly, dropping points at home to both Fulham and Tottenham in the first six games, and languishing below the league leaders.
Perhaps more importantly, however, the expansive, free-scoring Gunners from last season were absent in the early stages of this season.
The New Signings Are Bedding In
After a tentative start, Arsenal is starting to look as impressive as last season, with the summer’s big-name signings finding their feet and contributing to the team’s improvement.
To be fair, Declan Rice, costing over £100m, has been a revelation since the first ball was kicked this season. He has solidified the defence and scored vital goals in the 3-1 home victory against Manchester United in September and the draw with Chelsea in October.
David Raya is beginning to make the role of number one goalkeeper his own.
Kai Havertz started his Arsenal career very slowly after a big-money move from Chelsea. But in recent weeks, Havertz has started to justify that big fee. Two goals in two starts shows the German international’s capability. Expect more to come.
Arsenal Have Been Coping With Injuries to Key Players
Injuries have been a problem for the Gunners so far this season. Yet, despite this, the team looks better prepared than last season to cope with the loss of important players.
Perhaps the biggest and most important loss this season has been Jurrien Timber. Signed from Ajax in the summer, Timber suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury in the opening game of the season. After impressing in the pre-season, the loss of the versatile defender was a big setback for the Gunners. Timber will be out for several more months.
In addition to having Timber sidelined, Arsenal have also had to do without Thomas Partey, Gabriel Jesus, Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, Emile Smith Rowe, Gabriel Martinelli, Ben White and Fabio Vieira at various stages this season.
Despite this, though, compared with last season, Arsenal have much better strength in depth. This has seen them cope with the injury issues and top the table despite missing key players for several games.
Arsenal Have Yet to Hit Their Peak Domestically
Despite topping the table, statistically, Arsenal still need to up their game to replicate the numbers seen last season.
After 14 games in the 2022-23 season, Arsenal had 37 points, scoring 33 goals and conceding 11. They led Man City by five points at this stage last season.
After 14 games this season, Arsenal have 33 points, having scored 29 goals and conceded 11. They lead Liverpool by two points, Man City by three, and Aston Villa by four.
The key to success going forward might be the form of Martin Ødegaard, the club captain and talisman. It is no coincidence that Arsenal’s stuttering start coincided with Ødegaard’s struggle with form and fitness.
It is also no coincidence that Arsenal’s better form in recent weeks has seen Ødegaard return to something resembling his best form. As goes the captain, so goes the rest of the team.
When Ødegaard gets back to his best, so will Arsenal.
Arsenal Have Started Their Champions League Campaign Strongly
After several years of missing out on Europe’s premier club competition, Arsenal are back in the Champions League, and prospering.
They have qualified top of their group with a game to spare and, while the domestic campaign has stuttered at times and lacked the flair of last season, there has been plenty of evidence of Arsenal’s best form in their first five group games.
No team has scored more goals than Arsenal in the Champions League so far this season, and only one team has conceded less. This combination means the Gunners have the best goal difference in the competition.
Conclusion
It will be a daunting task, and I will probably look foolish for predicting it at the end of the season, but my longshot Grey Swan call in European football is for Arsenal to win the Champions League and Premier League double.
To achieve this, the Gunners will need some luck with fitness.
The team is starting to gel, though, and signs suggest it is building to its very best. Doing this double would be a dream for an Arsenal fan. But, surely, those of us who love what Pelé called ‘the beautiful game’ are allowed to dream?