Restrictions in the East, Cancellations in the West

We track scheduled flights (what’s planned) and tracked flights (what took off) from a sample of the largest airports across the world.

Looking at data up to 11 July: 

• Global flights are at 86.5% of 2019 levels, with 107k departures per day, a 22k increase from the start of the year (Chart 1).
• China is caught between easing restrictions and new outbreaks. Travel restrictions have eased for those wishing to work, international quarantine times have been reduced, and day-to-day restrictions have become less stringent. But there are also new temporary lockdowns. Most recently, Shanghai began two rounds of COVID tests (12-14 July), other cities are doing similar. Beijing attempted to impose a vaccine mandate (it was rolled back a day later). The restrictions come as the number of high-risk areas has ballooned from one to 317 in two weeks. Despite the setbacks, departures have increased 61.9% from Beijing and 53.5% from Shanghai over the same period. Elsewhere in Asia, the recovery has been more stable; with number of departures now having overtaken the US (Chart 2). There will likely be setbacks. Japan ‘has no doubt entered’ a seventh wave of infections having reopened to visitors a month ago.
• Flights are being cancelled in the West and more cancellations are likely to come. In Europe, Germany (6.1%) has seen the most cancellations. Meanwhile, international hubs like the Netherlands (3.5%) and UK (3.2%) have also been affected. European airports operate at near pre-COVID levels (92%) while restrictions have continued to ease (Chart 5). Departures increased just 2.0% WoW across the region (Chart 4). In the US, cancellations are less acute, but remain an issue. There were 13,397 flight cancellations in April, a 47.1% increase from March. This is four times the amount in April 2019. This, and a reduced appetite to travel, have left the US lagging Europe and Asia-ex-China (Chart 2). Departures increased just 0.8% WoW across the country (Chart 4).
• For more information on recent changes in COVID cases, please see our weekend report by Dominique and Henry.

Information on long-term movements in flight data is available below.

US

UK

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

Canada

China

Japan

Hong Kong

South Korea

Singapore

Thailand

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)