By Bilal Hafeez 30-07-2020
In: post | Newsletter

Exclusives: Asia In FX Manipulator Firing Line / Restarting the US Recovery + US-China Tension Tracker

(4 min read)
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Signs that the US recovery may have stalled are causing concern over the extent of the Q3 bounce. Dominique Dwor-Frecaut lays out the case why the recovery will restart later in Q3 and reiterates her call for a V-shaped growth trajectory.

Caroline Grady previews the forthcoming US Treasury FX manipulation report and shows why TWD, THB and VND are all at risk of being labelled currency manipulators. She also updates our US-China tension tracker in light of the recent escalation in tensions.

I update our China growth tracker where short-term growth dynamics look like they may be slowing. Finally, we update our global COVID tracker.




Recovery To Restart In Late Q3 With More Relief And Fewer Cases (3 min read) The recovery is likely to move sideways for a month or so before restarting due to the implementation of the new COVID-19 budget package and a decline in new cases.

(Dominique Dwor-Frecaut│ 30th July, 2020)




Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam All Risk ‘Currency Manipulator’ Label (4 min read) The forthcoming US Treasury FX manipulation report will probably add several Asian countries to its watchlist. It may even go so far as to label some of them ‘currency manipulators’. Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand are the three Asian countries at risk (and in Europe, Switzerland) which could prompt some increased disclosure, at least qualitatively, over currency intervention.

(Caroline Grady│ 30th July, 2020)


Hive Indicators


China-US Tension Tracker – An Updated Timeline Last week’s US decision to close China’s consulate in Houston on the grounds of economic espionage has significantly escalated tensions between the two countries. Beijing retaliated by closing the US consulate in Chengdu, and any closure of the remaining consulates, such as Guangzhou or Shanghai, would deepen tensions even further.

(Caroline Grady│ 30th July, 2020)


China Growth Tacker – Is China’s Growth Momentum Fading? We recently published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real-time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we will update the indicator to help us track growth.

(Bilal Hafeez│ 30th July, 2020)


China Growth


Coronavirus COVID-19


Global COVID-19 Tracker – Colombia Extends Lockdown, Concerns Over European Second Wave Colombia experienced the largest daily increase in COVID-19 cases. This rise has been part of an upward trend (charts below), with the 3d moving average up 116% and the weekly change in 3d moving average up 27%. Yesterday, the government extended lockdown measures by one month.

(Bilal HafeezSam van de Schootbrugge│ 30th July, 2020)



(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)



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