Commodities | EEMEA | Europe
Can Europe Survive Without Russian Gas?
- By Sam van de Schootbrugge
- 7 min read
Summary
- New IMF research explores how disruptions to Russian gas supply could impact Europe’s economic outlook.
- For the most vulnerable countries, a sudden cease in Russian gas imports could significantly affect growth, shrinking GDP by up to 6% in Hungary, the Slovak Republic and Czechia.
- Under the best-case scenario, the EU could replace as much as 70% of its Russian gas imports by the end of 2022 if Russia fully shuts off supply. But it would still experience gas price rises of over 100% by June 2023.
Introduction
Winter is coming – for many EU cities, temperatures fall below 10 degrees Celsius in September. Household heating systems will start to kick in, which, alongside heavy industrial usage in some sectors like chemicals could burn through the EU’s surplus gas supplies by as early as November.
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