China | Economics & Growth | Emerging Markets
China Growth Tracker: Property Rebound Underwhelms, Consumption Ticks Higher (New Indicator Added)
- By Mirza Baig and Liang Ding
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- 2 min read
Summary
- We have included high frequency indicators of the property market – weekly property transaction and prices. These show an underwhelming recovery so far.
- In contrast, indicators of consumption improved further. Composite PMI, due next week, is tracking for a touch above 52.0.
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We published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we update the indicators to help us track growth.
Summary
- We have included high frequency indicators of the property market – weekly property transaction and prices. These show an underwhelming recovery so far.
- In contrast, indicators of consumption improved further. Composite PMI, due next week, is tracking for a touch above 52.0.
Riding on Consumption
We have added two new charts focusing on property sector (Charts 3 and 4). The upshot is that while activity is bottoming, the rebound so far has been underwhelming.
Our other indicators, tracking consumption have continued to inch higher. The high frequency recovery index is tracking for a print slightly above 52 in the composite PMI due next week.
The gap between our market-based, and data-based trackers has widened. The main reason for that is that the market-based indicators are skewed by rise in commodity prices, especially iron ore.
