![featured](https://macrohive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Depositphotos_167386458_S.jpg)
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
Despite spending much less than the Biden campaign, Trump is ahead in the polls and betting markets as well as raising more money.
Trump’s guilty verdict on 31 May has not impacted his polling numbers much. Nationwide, he is still polling above Biden though within the margin of error (Table 1 and Chart 1). In four out of six swing states, his lead has shrunk though he remains ahead of Biden (Charts 3 and 4).
Trump’s betting odds, however, after falling on the news of the verdict, are now higher than before the verdict (Chart 1). This is despite having spent one third less than the Biden campaign.
This increase could reflect the dramatic turnaround in Trump’s fundraising. Following the start of the trial on 15 April, Trump raised twice as much as Biden in May (Charts 8 and 9). The Trump campaign has further indicated that the strong fundraising continued into June.
Meanwhile, Trump’s other lawsuits are moving very slowly and are seem unlikely to open before the presidential elections.
The first presidential debate is on Thursday. I expect Trump to push Biden on inflation, immigration and on his family business dealings. Though former president Trump is less than four years younger than President Biden, the former seems likely to push the latter on his age too. Biden is likely to press Trump on reproductive rights, personal honesty and his links with big business.
Biden is reported to have been preparing for over a week already, while Trump has instead opted to rely on his experience to guide him. The debate will have no live audience and each candidate microphone will be turned off when it is not their time to speak. The debate moderators have announced they would seek to facilitate the debate rather than take part in it.
Poor performance on Biden’s part could see renewed calls for him to pull out of the race (Chart 2).
Short-term market implications are limited as the election is still six months away. Also, unlike 2016, a Trump win this time would be less surprising. I still expect no Fed cut in 2024.
Long-term market implications could be profound if Trump wins, especially with a Republican majority in both House and Senate.
The 2024 presidential campaign has started early and the stakes for market participants are unusually high as the macro policies of a second Biden or Trump administration would differ markedly. This elections monitor updates investors abreast on the progress of each candidate. It is updated every other week and more often if needed. The monitor has five parts.
I focus on a Trump/Biden rematch because of the overwhelming odds that they will each get their party nomination. Also, a change in candidate prior to the election is unlikely but possible. I monitor this risk through the difference between the odds of a party victory and that of the candidate. For instance, the recent widening of the difference between the odds of a Republican and a Trump victory could signal a greater, though small, risk of Nicky Hailey winning the nomination.
I include swing state polls (Charts 3-6). Swing states could swing either Republican or Democrat and typically include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They account for 77 votes of 538 (270 votes are required to win) and pollsters generally agree the winner must take most of them.
I monitor the funds each candidate raises and spends. Even though they are only a fraction of the funds Political Action Committees (PAC) raise, they still contain information on the popularity of the candidates. The data is updated monthly.
I use Google searches as proxies for the public interest in the elections, with Taylor Swift searches as the benchmark.
The performance of the stock Trump Media and Technology Group stock could become a proxy for market views on the odds of a Trump victory.
The calendar provides the schedule of each party’s primaries, the steps to inauguration, and a calendar of Trump’s ongoing legal battles. These are:
Trump’s legal calendar is evolving and will be updated as information becomes available.
.
.
Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now
Your subscription has been successfully canceled.
Discount Applied - Your subscription has now updated with Coupon and from next payment Discount will be applied.