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Stringency indices are unchanged across developed and developing countries (Charts 1, 2). The US, UK and Canada remain significantly above their index averages for the pandemic, symbolic of persisting pressures. Australia is the only country on an upward trajectory in its stringency index (Chart 3), which coincides with recent news on a virus surge.
In the developing world, China, the Philippines and Colombia have the largest index values. All South American countries have indices at, or close to, their highest levels. Hong Kong and Taiwan are the only countries with a stringency value below their pandemic average. Hong Kong did, however, announce school closures last Friday, and thus a score rise may ensue.
Thailand and Indonesia have been following a steady decline in their indices. The former has seen infection rates dissipate and have allowed the arrival of up to 200 foreign visitors a day. Indonesia, on the other hand, has struggled to contain the virus and infections have yet to reach their peak.
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Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
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