• Goldman Sachs are bullish view on US equities. This is based the very high probability of positive returns during an expansion, and that data preceding previous recessions point to S&P price returns remaining attractive.
• Probability of a US recession is low at around 20% as the possible triggers – namely aggressive Fed tightening or economic imbalances – are remote. Imbalances are below average levels in the US with both households and banks deleveraging since the crisis.
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