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Economics & Growth
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: Retail sales – Tuesday. With services spending growing faster than goods, retail sales have printed below consumption for the past couple of years. Therefore, the consensus forecast of 0.3% MoM for the retail sales control group is consistent with continued above trend consumption growth. […]
Richard Jones
Summary Momentum models were down 0.1% over the past week, with equity models down 0.1% WoW, FX models down 0.4% WoW and rates models up 0.3% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate over a three-month time frame, with rates models the best performing (+0.6%). Market Implications Momentum models remain bearish the USD – our […]
Richard Jones
Summary US fixed income has staged an impressive bull run since late April/early May, with yields plummeting across the curve. Yet several signals now warn of a short-term correction higher for US yields. We anticipate the correction will depend on the FOMC’s policy update next week and therefore avoid initiating countertrend tactical positioning as the […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Core MoM CPI was above market expectations while the rest of the release was in line. OER and supercore services inflation accelerated from July while goods prices continued falling. Yesterday’s print is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve (Fed’s) focus on employment rather than on inflation risks. Market Implications I expect the Fed to […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: Retail sales – Tuesday. With services spending growing faster than goods, retail sales have printed below consumption for the past couple of years. Therefore, the consensus forecast of 0.3% MoM for the retail sales control group is consistent with continued above trend consumption growth. […]
Richard Jones
Summary US fixed income has staged an impressive bull run since late April/early May, with yields plummeting across the curve. Yet several signals now warn of a short-term correction higher for US yields. We anticipate the correction will depend on the FOMC’s policy update next week and therefore avoid initiating countertrend tactical positioning as the […]
Richard Jones
Summary Momentum models were down 0.1% over the past week, with equity models down 0.1% WoW, FX models down 0.4% WoW and rates models up 0.3% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate over a three-month time frame, with rates models the best performing (+0.6%). Market Implications Momentum models remain bearish the USD – our […]
Mirza Baig is a senior EM strategist at Macro Hive. He has been researching and trading global FX and rates products for 20 years.
Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade.
J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics Programme and Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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