Install the Macro Hive app
Europe | FX | G10 | US
Ben Ford
Summary The 2027 French draft budget is out. Lecornu has introduced €43bn of new measures and extended another €11bn. Ahead, four important dates remain: 6 October, 20 October, 27 October, and 17 November. We see four reasons the EUR/USD downtrend can extend to 1.10: France’s budget failed to eliminate the tail move. Extreme bearishness need […]
Antonio Del Favero
Published on Bloomberg chats on Tuesday, 29 September 12.44 and 13.18 LDN. Here, I am giving an update. Market Implications OATs-Bunds is likely to break 130bp (this was our expectation since it was trading just below 100bp on 18 September), and USD rates vs German rates (10Y) is likely to break 1.75%. Rates Have Not […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Markets expect more tightening than the Fed, contributing to a substantial flattening of the yield curve. Historically, the yield curve has provided unusually strong recession signals, particularly 12–24 months ahead. The 2022–24 false positive shows the need for a reality check: permits, orders, and profits provide useful shorter-horizon signals. The Fed cannot escape implicit […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
This report presents outputs from Macro Hive’s quantitative model for informational purposes only. Model signals and recommendations describe model outputs and do not constitute trade ideas, investment recommendations or investment advice by Macro Hive. They should not be interpreted as a recommendation to enter into, maintain or exit any transaction. Summary Global yields extended higher, […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Economics & Growth
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… FOMC meeting minutes – Wednesday. The FOMC meeting was not dovish, and after the good jobs report, the minutes may appear stale, including worries that a cooler labour market could justify cuts even if inflation is not at target. We will listen to views on inflation after […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models’ performance was up 0.3% over the past week (equities +0.8%, FX +0.4%, and rates -0.1%). Momentum models have registered negative returns across all three asset classes over the past three […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Employment report – Thursday. Consensus predicts a further slowdown in payrolls to 110k and a 10bp increase in the unemployment rate. This would align with the gradual economic weakening but not enough to move the Fed’s needle. Since the 18 June FOMC, nine of 11 speakers have […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Middle East remains tense and hostilities could easily restart and cause an oil price shock. Because the US is a net energy exporter, but oil producers’ spending is limited, an oil price shock would likely see US income increase but US spending decrease, which would improve the external balance. Because of a tighter […]
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy.
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank.
In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now
Your subscription has been successfully canceled.
Discount Applied - Your subscription has now updated with Coupon and from next payment Discount will be applied.