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Equities | US
John Tierney
Summary Last week’s selloff in the semiconductor sector most likely opens opportunities to establish positions in the AI hardware sector. Commodity chip producers will continue struggling. The Federal Reserve (Fed) may not be cutting rates for now – but we see zero likelihood it will raise rates. And if the economy slows, we expect rate […]
John H. Welch
Summary Brazil’s fiscal health continues to deteriorate at break-neck speed. The government has abandoned the original, extremely relaxed fiscal targets, and the market is catching on. The Banco Central do Brazil has lowered the SELIC policy rate 300bps since it started easing but has already turned more cautious in discourse if not yet action. Now […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.1% over the past week, with positive performances in fixed income and FX countering negative equity returns. Equities were down 1.9% WoW, while bonds were up 0.6%, and […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Our views on the major asset classes remain the same. We’re slightly more positive on the FTSE 100 given this environment of rising rates at the long end.
Our views on the major asset classes remain the same. We’re slightly more positive on the FTSE 100 given this environment of rising rates at the long end.
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Equities | US
John Tierney
Summary Last week’s selloff in the semiconductor sector most likely opens opportunities to establish positions in the AI hardware sector. Commodity chip producers will continue struggling. The Federal Reserve (Fed) may not be cutting rates for now – but we see zero likelihood it will raise rates. And if the economy slows, we expect rate […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary The US sees CPI and PPI data this week – both likely to be consistent with a June cut from the Fed. In Europe, the ECB sets policy on Thursday. We expect rates on hold with an optimistic tone to prevail until they get March’s final inflation print. New Zealand’s central bank meets on […]
Richard Jones
Summary The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) has continued verbal intervention, warning the market it is unhappy with USD/JPY price action and is prepared to push back against the JPY selloff. USD/JPY has continued rallying this week, breaking 154 for the first time in 34 years. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has had its strongest […]
John H. Welch
Summary Brazil’s fiscal health continues to deteriorate at break-neck speed. The government has abandoned the original, extremely relaxed fiscal targets, and the market is catching on. The Banco Central do Brazil has lowered the SELIC policy rate 300bps since it started easing but has already turned more cautious in discourse if not yet action. Now […]
Nick Baltas is a managing director and head of R&D, cross-asset delta-one and commodity systematic trading strategies at Goldman Sachs. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs in 2017, Nick was an executive director in the quantitative research unit of UBS.
John Coates is the Deputy Dean of Harvard Law School. He has served at the Securities and Exchange Commission, and was a partner at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, specializing in financial institutions.
Mark Koyama is Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Mercatus Center. Mark earned his PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford. He focuses on how historical institutions functioned and on the relationship between culture and economic performance.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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