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Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signalled he intends to keep inflation within its current range. He likely intends to implement opportunistic disinflation, a Fed strategy from the 1990s that relies on disinflationary shocks to lower inflation. But today’s macro backdrop is less favourable compared with the 1990s, suggesting the desired disinflationary shocks may not […]
Richard Jones
Summary Since peaking above 108 (intra-day) on 22 November, the US dollar Index (DXY) moved below 106 one week later and now trades just above 106, about 1.75% lower than that recent peak. Moves in US yields have been similar, with the 2-year yield now about 25bp off its peak two weeks ago and the […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.2% over the past week, with equity models up 1.1% WoW, and FX models and rates models flat WoW. Momentum models are down -0.1% in aggregate over a […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signalled he intends to keep inflation within its current range. He likely intends to implement opportunistic disinflation, a Fed strategy from the 1990s that relies on disinflationary shocks to lower inflation. But today’s macro backdrop is less favourable compared with the 1990s, suggesting the desired disinflationary shocks may not […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, we have a data-light week ahead: S&P PMIs – Friday. The week’s most important release will be the S&P PMIs. Like most soft data, they have decoupled from the hard data so tell us little about the economy. For a trading perspective on the PMIs, see our Event Monitor. […]
Richard Jones
Summary Since peaking above 108 (intra-day) on 22 November, the US dollar Index (DXY) moved below 106 one week later and now trades just above 106, about 1.75% lower than that recent peak. Moves in US yields have been similar, with the 2-year yield now about 25bp off its peak two weeks ago and the […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.2% over the past week, with equity models up 1.1% WoW, and FX models and rates models flat WoW. Momentum models are down -0.1% in aggregate over a […]
Frank Kelly, Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, an independent strategic advisory firm. Frank began his career as a writer for President Ronald Reagan and went on to serve in the White House Office of Political Affairs.
Professor Shipsey was one of the leading particle physicists of his generation and was Head of Physics at Oxford from 2018 until his passing. His groundbreaking work ranged from studying subatomic particles to advancing our understanding of the Higgs boson
Charles Engel is Donald Hester Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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