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Equities | US
Bilal Hafeez
The chorus of negativity towards stocks has been relentless. Our US equity news sentiment index has been in negative territory for almost two months now. Yet, throughout this, US equities have essentially traded sideways. From price levels, one would not think that investors have been in a panic about AI doom, neocloud failures, and yield […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary A Democratic House takeover seems all but certain, while a Senate flip is likely, though with a narrow majority that would limit its policy impact. Prediction markets appear overly focused on presidential emergency powers while overlooking risks arising from close congressional races, particularly in the Senate. Even without election disputes, mail-ballot counting and runoffs […]
Simon Quijano-Evans
Summary & Market Implications – HUF hasn’t been impressed by the plethora of press briefings the authorities held on Tuesday 20 October, especially as the Eurozone path wasn’t initially addressed – In addition, the path that emerged from journalist questions and a Reuters interview pointed to a possible 2032 Euro-accession date, perhaps a year later […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Summary Rates were mixed across our monitored cash-bond and swap curves: a risk-off/flight-to-quality tone helped drive a broad rally, but France remained at the edge of its five-year yield ranges after this week’s selloff. Cross-market curves also moved decisively: OATs led the relative steepening, with OATs 2s10s vs USTs steepening by 15.6bp to 94.4bp, while […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Economics & Growth
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… FOMC meeting minutes – Wednesday. The FOMC meeting was not dovish, and after the good jobs report, the minutes may appear stale, including worries that a cooler labour market could justify cuts even if inflation is not at target. We will listen to views on inflation after […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models’ performance was up 0.3% over the past week (equities +0.8%, FX +0.4%, and rates -0.1%). Momentum models have registered negative returns across all three asset classes over the past three […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Employment report – Thursday. Consensus predicts a further slowdown in payrolls to 110k and a 10bp increase in the unemployment rate. This would align with the gradual economic weakening but not enough to move the Fed’s needle. Since the 18 June FOMC, nine of 11 speakers have […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Middle East remains tense and hostilities could easily restart and cause an oil price shock. Because the US is a net energy exporter, but oil producers’ spending is limited, an oil price shock would likely see US income increase but US spending decrease, which would improve the external balance. Because of a tighter […]
Alex Edmans is a Professor of Finance at London Business School and is one of the world’s leading academics on company purpose, social value, and profit. Alex has a PhD from MIT as a Fulbright Scholar and was previously a tenured professor at Wharton and an investment banker at Morgan Stanley.
Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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