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Commodities
Vasileios Gkionakis
Oil prices are soaring, with Brent crude up nearly 30% this quarter. The supply side is driving the rise, increasing the risk of significant deterioration in global activity and upside to inflation.
Mirza Baig, Liang Ding
Mobility based indicators improved further heading into the long nation-wide holidays. We are now tracking for a solid beat in the composite PMI for September vs. consensus expectation of 52.0.
Richard Jones
September has been a busy month for G10 central banks, with FX price action swiftly reacting to the new global monetary policy landscape.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The economy is set to experience four shocks in October: an auto strike, government shutdown, onset of student debt repayments, and the end of tax relief.
Week Ahead
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Week Ahead
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
This month we took a deeper look into private markets, where we have been bearish for most of this year.
This month we took a deeper look into private markets, where we have been bearish for most of this year.
Emerging Markets | Europe | FX | Global | UK | US
Vasileios Gkionakis
Idiosyncratic and relative-value (RV) trades are currently appealing. Look for monetary policy divergences (Bank of England repricing lower, rates re-pricing in CEE), sensitivity to ongoing muted Chinese growth, and energy prices.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Our high-frequency China growth tracker has picked up since last week on stronger domestic road congestion data, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. We also see prices of economically sensitive commodities like iron ore continue to rise, as is the Baltic Dry index.
John Tierney
Equities remain mired in a narrow trading range that began in early July. The end of summer and hot weather season may bring little relief. We see the logjam continuing until the economy breaks weaker and forces the Fed to choose between keeping the recovery going (i.e., easing) or damping inflation (i.e., higher for longer).
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
ECB pulled off a dovish hike, but we see more to come. The ECB hiked by 25bps as Henry had expected for some time. They also increased their interest rate forecasts for this year and next, driven by higher energy prices.
Jason Halliwell is the head of GMO’s Systematic Global Macro team and a partner of the firm. GMO is a leading value-oriented asset manager with $60bn under management. Jason joined GMO in September 1999 from Westpac Investment Management where he spent three years in research and development of quantitative tactical asset allocation methods. In the podcast, we talk about:
Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, is a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of many books, including most recently “In Defense of Public Debt”.
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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