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FX | US
Richard Jones
Summary The USD Index (DXY) has rallied to a new YTD high in the past week. This rally is pausing ahead of 107, which is also the 2023 high. The RSI for the USD index recently indicated the DXY was overbought and is now starting to unwind. Market Implications We think the DXY is due […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Recent NFP prints and pre-pandemic CBO projections suggest sub-100k NFPs could be the new normal now the immigration surge is over. If so, a large negative surprise at the 6 December NFP release is likely, which would rekindle recessions fears and expectations of Fed cuts. I expect the Fed to respond with a cut […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.7% over the past week, with FX models gaining +1.4% WoW, rates models up 0.3% and equity models down -0.5% WoW. Momentum models are up in aggregate over […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary US CPI aligned with expectations. Goods continued deflating, housing accelerated, and supercore inflation slowed. Trend measures show inflation becoming stickier. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut 25bp in December, aligning with markets pricing 80% risk. I expect the Fed to remain on hold in 2025, against markets pricing about two cuts. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, we have a data-light week ahead: S&P PMIs – Friday. The week’s most important release will be the S&P PMIs. Like most soft data, they have decoupled from the hard data so tell us little about the economy. For a trading perspective on the PMIs, see our Event Monitor. […]
Richard Jones
Summary The UK 2-year yield hovers near last week’s six-month high. The Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Review (MPR), following last week’s 25bps cut, broadly aligned with our expectations, without overly hawkish messaging. However, hawkish Fed pricing is feeding into BoE pricing, which challenges fading elevated UK short-end yields. Market Implications Despite the risks, […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.7% over the past week, with FX models gaining +1.4% WoW, rates models up 0.3% and equity models down -0.5% WoW. Momentum models are up in aggregate over […]
Charles Engel is Donald Hester Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments.
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015).
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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