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Economics & Growth
Macro Hive
Key Events For Insights Into Market Pricing and Forecasts Around Key Events, Visit Our NEW Event Monitor! G10 Event Monitor Watch for our latest US CPI forecast next Friday ahead of its release on Tuesday 12 August. We also release our weekly Initial Jobless Claims forecast on Tuesday, two days before its release on Thursday 7 […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary US growth is likely to remain below 1.5% over the next year or so due to immigration collapse and consumer debt stabilisation. The Trump administration is likely to react through fiscal stimulus as monetary policy will likely remain beyond its reach. Because the growth slowdown is partly supply driven, a fiscal stimulus could bring […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Equity and bond market pricing of the US economic outlook could only be consistent under the ‘Goldilocks’ economic conditions prevailing during 2022-24’s immigration surge. But immigration has collapsed, which is likely to cause ‘stagflation-lite’ economic conditions. Soft private sector demand due to weak confidence will dampen inflationary pressures in 2025. The fiscal stimulus Congress […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Economics & Growth
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… FOMC meeting minutes – Wednesday. The FOMC meeting was not dovish, and after the good jobs report, the minutes may appear stale, including worries that a cooler labour market could justify cuts even if inflation is not at target. We will listen to views on inflation after […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models’ performance was up 0.3% over the past week (equities +0.8%, FX +0.4%, and rates -0.1%). Momentum models have registered negative returns across all three asset classes over the past three […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Employment report – Thursday. Consensus predicts a further slowdown in payrolls to 110k and a 10bp increase in the unemployment rate. This would align with the gradual economic weakening but not enough to move the Fed’s needle. Since the 18 June FOMC, nine of 11 speakers have […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Middle East remains tense and hostilities could easily restart and cause an oil price shock. Because the US is a net energy exporter, but oil producers’ spending is limited, an oil price shock would likely see US income increase but US spending decrease, which would improve the external balance. Because of a tighter […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater.
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank.
Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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