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Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Since the 29 January FOMC, data releases have generally been towards increasing inflation risks. Transmission of Fed easing to the real economy has been unequal. Household wealth has risen but credit growth remains weak. Recent Fedspeak shows the FOMC are wondering whether policy is restrictive enough. This creates risk the Fed could end its […]
Bilal Hafeez
If you spend time on X or Twitter, you would think the release of Grok 3.0 and ChatGPT’s DeepResearch models marks the dawn of superintelligence (AGI). In reality, these advances highlight the limitations of large language models (LLMs) and how far we still are from AGI. At their core, these models are only as good […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.1% over the past week, with equity models up +0.4% WoW, FX models down -0.3% WoW, and rates models down -0.2% WoW. Momentum models are up +1.0% in […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Since the 29 January FOMC, data releases have generally been towards increasing inflation risks. Transmission of Fed easing to the real economy has been unequal. Household wealth has risen but credit growth remains weak. Recent Fedspeak shows the FOMC are wondering whether policy is restrictive enough. This creates risk the Fed could end its […]
Bilal Hafeez
If you spend time on X or Twitter, you would think the release of Grok 3.0 and ChatGPT’s DeepResearch models marks the dawn of superintelligence (AGI). In reality, these advances highlight the limitations of large language models (LLMs) and how far we still are from AGI. At their core, these models are only as good […]
Richard Jones
Summary UK gilt yields have risen across the curve in the past two weeks. Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey downplayed any inflation rise, instead focusing on the UK’s weak growth environment and accelerating disinflation. Momentum players have increased UK gilts bearishness. Market Implications We think the rise in gilt yields presents an opportunity […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.1% over the past week, with equity models up +0.4% WoW, FX models down -0.3% WoW, and rates models down -0.2% WoW. Momentum models are up +1.0% in […]
Max Stier is President and CEO of the Partnership for Public Service. The Partnership has been widely praised as a thought leader on federal government management issues.
Chris Johnson spent nearly two decades at the CIA focusing on China and Asia. Today, Chris is the President and CEO of China Strategies Group.
Jonny Matthews is a senior portfolio manager at Fortem Capital and creator of SuperMacro, an institutional-level macroeconomic research platform. Before that, he spent 12 years as a partner at Brevan Howard, where he managed a $500 million investment portfolio.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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