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Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary As expected, the Fed cut 25bp, and against expectations added one cut to the 2025 dot. Chair Powell cited a shift in the balance of employment and inflation risks as the primary reason and characterised the cut as risk management. Powell did not commit to a policy path, reflecting the lack of clarity on […]
Macro Hive
Key Events For Insights Into Market Pricing and Forecasts Around Key Events, Visit Our NEW Event Monitor! G10 Event Monitor Next week sees several important data releases, including Empire State Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. However, markets are seeing through these, focussing instead on central bank meetings. Options expiring on 18 September cover the […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models delivered marginal gains on last week, up 0.2%. Equity models performed best (+0.3% WoW), followed by rates (+0.1% WoW), with FX momentum models registering a small loss (-0.1% WoW). Only […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Economics & Growth
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… FOMC meeting minutes – Wednesday. The FOMC meeting was not dovish, and after the good jobs report, the minutes may appear stale, including worries that a cooler labour market could justify cuts even if inflation is not at target. We will listen to views on inflation after […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models’ performance was up 0.3% over the past week (equities +0.8%, FX +0.4%, and rates -0.1%). Momentum models have registered negative returns across all three asset classes over the past three […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Employment report – Thursday. Consensus predicts a further slowdown in payrolls to 110k and a 10bp increase in the unemployment rate. This would align with the gradual economic weakening but not enough to move the Fed’s needle. Since the 18 June FOMC, nine of 11 speakers have […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Middle East remains tense and hostilities could easily restart and cause an oil price shock. Because the US is a net energy exporter, but oil producers’ spending is limited, an oil price shock would likely see US income increase but US spending decrease, which would improve the external balance. Because of a tighter […]
Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes.
Chris Hughes is an economist and author who now serves as Chair of the Economic Security Project, a leading nonprofit advocating for economic power for all Americans. Chris was a cofounder of Facebook.
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London, and Merrill Lynch in London.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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