Install the Macro Hive app
FX
Richard Jones
Summary The USD index (DXY) is rising this week, for only the second week in seven. DXY technicals were oversold, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has partly unwound. Room exists for RSIs to unwind slightly higher in the coming days. Long and short USD exposures are not crowded. This clean positioning means chances of […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Despite significant strides in speed, cost, intelligence, and multi-modal capabilities, AI has yet to move from testing to widespread adoption. Key barriers to adoption include hallucinations, limited memory, reliance on good prompts, and poor real-world adaptability. For AI to deliver real business value, there must be a shift in focus from just improving models […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.1% over the past week, with rates models up +0.5% WoW, and FX models down -0.1% WoW and equity models down -0.3% WoW. Momentum models are up +0.2% […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary President Donald Trump aims to reverse the decline in the income share of lower income Americans. If successful, this could create a macro regime change with higher growth and inflation as well as a steeper Phillips curve: The market consequences of the macro regime change include: Higher real yields. Ending US equity markets outperformance. […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Despite significant strides in speed, cost, intelligence, and multi-modal capabilities, AI has yet to move from testing to widespread adoption. Key barriers to adoption include hallucinations, limited memory, reliance on good prompts, and poor real-world adaptability. For AI to deliver real business value, there must be a shift in focus from just improving models […]
Richard Jones
Summary President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods this week, although a one-month exemption has been granted for the auto industry. USD/CAD rose on the news but is now lower on the week. This is partly because of the prospect of the auto exemption, but also on broader USD weakness. The US-Canada […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.2% over the past week, with equity models up +1.1% WoW, and FX models and rates models both flat WoW. Momentum models are up +0.6% in aggregate over […]
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015).
Thanos is the Founder and CIO of ABP Invest, which he founded in 2015. He began his career as an Economist for the UK Government Economic Service through the Civil Service Fast Stream during the ERM Crisis of 1992.
Randy Schwimmer is Vice Chairman of Churchill, where he oversees the Investor Solutions Group. Previously, he served as Co-Head of Senior Lending, responsible for senior lending origination and capital markets.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now
Your subscription has been successfully canceled.
Discount Applied - Your subscription has now updated with Coupon and from next payment Discount will be applied.