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Emerging Markets | Europe | UK | US
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the highlights: Inauguration – Monday. Reports suggest up to 100 day-one executive orders. Key ones include tariffs, but the incoming administration has skilfully prepared the markets and plans a gradual and predictable phase in. This could be dollar negative. S&P PMIS – Friday. These are more trading […]
Richard Jones
Summary Beginning in Q4 2024, the US dollar index (DXY) ascent has impressively climbed over 9% since troughing in late September. DXY upside accelerated after Trump’s election victory, with roughly two-thirds of the gain from Q4 occurring since the US election. As Trump takes power next week, we think the USD could be topping out […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.2% over the past week, with FX and rates models both down -0.1% WoW, and equity models down -0.6% WoW. Momentum models are up +1.2% in aggregate over […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Despite the downside surprise in December’s core CPI, inflation risks are tilted to the upside: Survey based inflation expectations are rising or stable but high. Inflation trends are stable and high. Evidence exists of cost pressures. Domestic demand pressures are pulling up inflation, though this seems offset, so far, by weak worker bargaining power. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the highlights: Inauguration – Monday. Reports suggest up to 100 day-one executive orders. Key ones include tariffs, but the incoming administration has skilfully prepared the markets and plans a gradual and predictable phase in. This could be dollar negative. S&P PMIS – Friday. These are more trading […]
Richard Jones
Summary Beginning in Q4 2024, the US dollar index (DXY) ascent has impressively climbed over 9% since troughing in late September. DXY upside accelerated after Trump’s election victory, with roughly two-thirds of the gain from Q4 occurring since the US election. As Trump takes power next week, we think the USD could be topping out […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.2% over the past week, with FX and rates models both down -0.1% WoW, and equity models down -0.6% WoW. Momentum models are up +1.2% in aggregate over […]
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater.
Mark Rzepczynski is the managing member and CEO of AMPHI Research and Trading, a consulting firm to institutional investors and hedge funds on derivatives markets across all asset classes. His 40 years of experience includes CEO Funds Group of FourWinds Capital Management, president, CIO of John W. Henry Inc, and head of taxable fixed income research at Fidelity Management and Research.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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