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Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary A 2025 recession is likely due to the extraordinary increase in tariffs and policy uncertainty, with the pause in tariffs implementation likely to move the onset to Q2 from Q1. The recession is likely to last about three quarters with unemployment increasing by about 2.5ppts. I expect the Fed to cut as the recession […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/CAD is down for the sixth successive week, and for the eighth week in ten. The pair printed a new YTD low this week, where it currently trades. USD/CAD is approaching its 200-day moving average (DMA), very near 1.4000. Market Implications We think the 200-DMA should robustly support USD/CAD and with an RSI approaching […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Retail Sales – Wednesday. Consensus expects a big jump in the headline number to 1.4% MoM from 0.2% in February, but this is likely to reflect tariff frontrunning rather than underlying demand strength. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: UK labour market – […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
We continue to advocate our ‘everything breaks’ portfolio. The core rationale is that we are entering a new regime of higher interest rates – something investors have not faced for a decade.
When markets go through regime changes, you need to throw out the conventional ways of investing. Take a common approach – business cycle investing.
Rarely can we point to one factor driving the performance of all markets. But since the global financial crisis in 2008, that factor is low interest rates.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Yesterday’s tariff announcement reduced policy uncertainty but was of such magnitude that it created new economic downside risk. The tariffs will lift inflation, though it is uncertain by how much and for how long. The tariffs will likely lead to a contraction in manufacturing output and employment, with an ambiguous impact on the trade […]
Dalvir Mandara, Eric Wang, Bilal Hafeez
Not a day goes by without a new LLM model hitting the market, each claiming to outperform the rest on some benchmark leaderboard. But these self-reported scores often deserve scepticism. Much like marking your own homework, these evaluations can be misleading. For starters, many benchmark datasets – or even their answers – might appear in […]
Richard Jones
Summary EUR/USD is up ~6% so far year-to-date (YTD). The pair hovers about one percentage point off its YTD high seen yesterday, having gained about 1.5% this week ahead of the US jobs report and Powell’s speech later today. Technicals show EUR/USD as overbought in the near-term, coinciding with CTAs ramping up EUR/USD long positioning. […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.2% over the past week, with equity models up +0.8% WoW, FX models +0.3% WoW and rates models down -0.4% WoW. Momentum models are up +0.1% in aggregate […]
Mirza has a track record of 20 years in the field of researching and trading global foreign exchange. His methodology is built on comprehensive research on underlying fundamentals, rigorous scenario analysis, and a low-frequency, high-conviction approach for idea generation.
Vania Stavrakeva is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the London Business School and has a PhD from Harvard. She has extensively studied exchange rate determination and how monetary policy, macroeconomics news and beliefs impact exchange rate movements.
Andrew Polk is the co-founder and head of economic research at Trivium China, a Beijing-based strategic advisory firm. Before founding Trivium, he was China director at Medley Global Advisors.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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