Ep. 122: Ivy Zelman on the Coming US Housing Crisis

Ivy Zelman is CEO at Zelman & Associates. She co-founded Zelman & Associates in 2007 which is a leading housing research firm in the US. In 2005, Ivy called the top of the housing market. From there, she called the bottom of the housing market in January 2012. She helped best-selling writer, Michael Lewis, with research related to the mortgage crash which became a part of his best-selling book turned movie, ‘The Big Short.’ Michael wrote in the book ‘all roads led to Ivy.’  Ivy was inducted into the Institutional Investors – America Research Team’s inaugural Hall of Fame in 2012 as a result of Ivy and her team earning eleven 1st place rankings (1999 – 2004, 2006 – 2007 and 2010 – 2013). In this podcast we discuss:

1. How COVID impacted housing
2. Inventory trends and why they are not supportive of prices
3. Why housing demand is falling
4. The problem with rising mortgage rates
5. The role of investors in US residential housing
6. The Airbnb Effect
7. Why house prices will fall in 2023 and 2024
8. Changes in mortgage products since 2008
9. The large backlog of housing supply
10. Understanding the build to rent market
11. Demographic issues
12. Affordability in rental properties
13. Regional outlook including New York
14. Books mentioned: The Psychology of Money (Housel), The Algebra of Happiness (Galloway), Gimme Shelter (Zelman)

You can learn more about Ivy’s research on housing here.

 

Read the full transcript here.

 

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(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)