Ep. 105: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on the Coming US Recession, and Fed’s Communication Problem

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy and sell side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss: 

1. Why Powell and the Fed reacted late to inflation
2. Comparison to Volcker period. 
3. How strong is the Fed Board?
4. Does the Fed have a framework?
5. Hard landing is needed to bring inflation down
6. Why the US labour market is weaker than many think
7. What happened to the rebound in the services sector? 
8. Household savings
9. Why structural inflation is still low
10. Why the US will enter a recession
11. Unintended consequences of Russia-Ukraine War 

You can follow Dominque’s work here  

You can read the full transcript for this podcast here.

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(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)