President Trump’s approval rating has bounced up again over the past week with the gradual reopening of the economy and the massive fiscal support acting in his favour (Chart 1). Renewed stock market gains likely helped too. For the November election, prediction markets continue to see Biden ahead (Chart 2) and attention is increasingly turning to his choice of VP nominee…
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President Trump’s approval rating is now back within range after an earlier bounce on the back of easing in lockdown restrictions (Chart 1). With less than six months to go before the election some states are extending postal voting to address concerns over in-person voting during COVID. Michigan, New Hampshire and California have all made recent changes to increase mail-in voting, a process Trump claims can increase voter fraud.
Prediction markets continue to see Biden ahead (Chart 2). His confirmation as Democratic presidential nominee may now be done in a virtual setting with the party recently approving changes to allow for a different format at the delayed August convention.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
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