US Election Tracker – Fake Polls
- By Caroline Grady and Bilal Hafeez
- 1 min read
Donald Trump dismissed election polls as ‘fake’ in a Sunday Fox news interview and refused to confirm whether he would accept the result if he lost. An unclear result in the election was highlighted as a key risk in our recent Macro Hive investor survey with expanded mail-in voting a point of contention for many Republicans. With more than three months until the election Joe Biden’s lead could well narrow, but the gap is currently increasingly large. An ABC/Washington Post poll released on Sunday gave Biden a 15-point lead, adding to a number of recent polls showing Biden’s lead in double digits, and the second poll with a week to put this at 15 points (after the Quinnipiac poll we highlighted in last week’s tracker).
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Donald Trump dismissed election polls as ‘fake’ in a Sunday Fox news interview and refused to confirm whether he would accept the result if he lost. An unclear result in the election was highlighted as a key risk in our recent Macro Hive investor survey with expanded mail-in voting a point of contention for many Republicans. With more than three months until the election Joe Biden’s lead could well narrow, but the gap is currently increasingly large. An ABC/Washington Post poll released on Sunday gave Biden a 15-point lead, adding to a number of recent polls showing Biden’s lead in double digits, and the second poll with a week to put this at 15 points (after the Quinnipiac poll we highlighted in last week’s tracker).
Trump’s Fox interview included other disputed comments including where Trump claimed that the US had one of the lowest COVID mortality rates globally. Trump’s former director of communications, Anthony Scaramucci, described the Fox interview as ‘Biden’s campaign ad.’
Chart 1: Yet Another Poll Points to a Double-Digit Lead for Biden
Source: Washington Post
VP Announcement Expected in a Few weeks
Joe Biden said last week that he was in the process of narrowing down the list of VP candidates but did not provide any further clarity on which of the female Democrat contenders is likely to be chosen. Biden had initially said the announcement would be made by 1 August but has pushed the date out to before the Democratic National Convention on 17 August. Prediction markets show California Senator, Kamala Harris, remaining as the favourite but her lead has dropped in recent weeks with former National security Advisor, Susan Rice, gaining ground. Tammy Duckworth and Val Demings are some way behind.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Caroline Grady is a Senior Researcher at Macro Hive. Formerly, she was a Senior EM Economist at Deutsche Bank and a Leader Writer at the Financial Times.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)