President Trump’s approval has increased over the past week, but prediction markets continue to show low odds for a Trump victory (Chart 1). One reason is that battle-ground polling continues to show Biden clearly leading in Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (i.e. above margin of error), comfortably ahead in North Carolina and Arizona and possibly bringing Texas into play (Chart 2).
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President Trump’s approval has increased over the past week, but prediction markets continue to show low odds for a Trump victory (Chart 1). One reason is that battle-ground polling continues to show Biden clearly leading in Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (i.e. above margin of error), comfortably ahead in North Carolina and Arizona and possibly bringing Texas into play (Chart 2).
In terms of Congress, prediction markets still have Democrats winning the Senate, which would mean that Democrats would get the clean sweep of the Executive and both chambers of Congress (Chart 3). Biden has yet to pick Vice Presidential nominee, though Kamala Harris appears favourite to be that pick (Chart 4).
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
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