Summary
- At the start of 2022, strategists called for an 8% gain in the S&P 500 by end 2022.
- By end-Q1, their predictions are largely unchanged despite the S&P 500 finishing the quarter down 4.9%.
- Historically, Q2-Q4 has about a 50% chance of being positive after a negative Q1. Meanwhile, Q2-Q4 was positive in almost 80% of years after a positive Q1.
Market Implications
- A negative Q1 is associated with high volatility over the rest of the year.
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