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By John Butler 06-02-2020

Gold: A Modern Investment Framework For An Ancient Asset, Part II

(4 min read)
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Gold has the unique and valuable characteristic of being a de facto form of ‘insurance’ for a portfolio of financial assets, and the national fiat currencies in which they are denominated. This is due to it not being a financial asset per se, as explained in Part I of this series. In Part II of this series, I present a way to model the price of gold based on fundamental macroeconomic variables. The variables with the strongest historical significance for determining the price of gold suggest that it is currently close to fair value. However, a case can be made that the explanatory variables themselves have a skewed future distribution at present, suggesting potential future upside for gold.
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