Ethereum: The Triple Halving of the World’s Second Cryptocurrency
- By Nikhil Shamapant
- 2 min read
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Bitcoin has dominated the cryptocurrency space so far, but investors are turning their attention to Ethereum. Prior valuation models based on inferior comparables (BTC Stock to flow, Payment networks, Metcalfe’s law, DCF model on YTD fees) result in a $30-50,000 base case for Ethereum. However, I believe a $150,000 price target is achievable by January 2023. I base this claim on the concept of ‘The Triple Halving.’ That is, I believe Ethereum will have a sell pressure reduction equivalent to undergoing all three of Bitcoin’s halving events consecutively
What Drives $150,000?
Illiquidity Drivers: Stake+DeFi is locked up now at a 12% market cap. Incentives will bring this to 30%. Fee burn removes the most liquid supply first. Negative stock to flow means no release valve through issuance. Yields cause ETH HODLing to go viral more than BTC HODLing ever could. Yield starts at 25+%. Yield is USD price insensitive and attracts more staking and more illiquidity.
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