Over the last week, global COVID-19 cases rose by 3.5mn (up 10% WoW), increasing the total to 47.5mn (Chart 1). European countries accounted for approximately half of these new infections. France saw 217,000 cases, followed by Italy (195,000) and the UK (156,000). The largest WoW rises (for countries registering 10,000+ cases) were in Sweden (95%), Greece (83%) and Austria (72%). Meanwhile, there were declines in Ireland (-34%), Brazil (-24%) and France (-20%).
This global weekly rise is equivalent to 44 new cases per 100,000 population. Belgium recorded the largest weekly population-adjusted rise (1,025), with Luxembourg (759) and the Czech Republic (737) following closely behind. For context, Belgium is currently the only country to have officially recorded a weekly figure amounting to 1% of their population.
Worldwide deaths now stand at 1.21mn, up by 47,500 over the last seven days (up 12% WoW). In population-adjusted terms, the Czech Republic (13), Belgium (10.5) and Argentina (5) suffered most. The EU4 recorded 5,415 deaths (up 36% WoW) and the UK 1,900 (up 35% WoW).
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Summary
- 1% of Belgium’s population contracted the virus last week. This is the highest weekly increase in population-adjusted cases on record.
- France, Italy and the UK currently have the most COVID patients in hospitals, but capacity is still at least a quarter below wave-one levels.
- Across DM economies, weekly mobility contracted the fastest since March. Meanwhile, mobility in Asia and LATAM countries rose.
- Equities are correlating negatively with cases and deaths. In the very short term, this spells weaker EU and US stock market performance.
Cases and Deaths
Over the last week, global COVID-19 cases rose by 3.5mn (up 10% WoW), increasing the total to 47.5mn (Chart 1). European countries accounted for approximately half of these new infections. France saw 217,000 cases, followed by Italy (195,000) and the UK (156,000). The largest WoW rises (for countries registering 10,000+ cases) were in Sweden (95%), Greece (83%) and Austria (72%). Meanwhile, there were declines in Ireland (-34%), Brazil (-24%) and France (-20%).
This global weekly rise is equivalent to 44 new cases per 100,000 population. Belgium recorded the largest weekly population-adjusted rise (1,025), with Luxembourg (759) and the Czech Republic (737) following closely behind. For context, Belgium is currently the only country to have officially recorded a weekly figure amounting to 1% of their population.
Worldwide deaths now stand at 1.21mn, up by 47,500 over the last seven days (up 12% WoW). In population-adjusted terms, the Czech Republic (13), Belgium (10.5) and Argentina (5) suffered most. The EU4 recorded 5,415 deaths (up 36% WoW) and the UK 1,900 (up 35% WoW).
The following scatter graphs collate daily cases and deaths for both DM and EM countries (Chart 2). Evidently, the majority of EU countries are in, or approaching, the peak of their waves. This starkly contrasts other areas of the globe.
Hospitalisations
Not all countries report the number of COVID-19 patients currently in hospital. Of those which do and have current data, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Hungary, Portugal and Slovenia have all reached pandemic highs. France, Italy and the UK have the most hospitalisations, but occupancy is still below first-wave levels.
Mobility
In DM economies, we saw the largest weekly reduction in mobility since March (6% WoW decline). Mobility has fallen across all countries, except Japan, the UK, Finland and Australia. The largest declines were in France, Greece and Ireland (Chart 3).
Across EM countries, average mobility rose 0.6% WoW. Indonesia, India and Malaysia experienced the largest weekly increase, while the Czech Republic, Poland and South Africa suffered declines. Across the full sample, Japan has the highest level of mobility, followed by Estonia and Denmark.
The significant mobility decline across Europe has lowered the global average (Chart 4). Throughout much of the summer, European countries enjoyed freer movement than elsewhere in the world. Since September, however, mobility has declined sharply, and the US has moved ahead of European countries.
Stringency
Across our sample of 34 countries, the average Stringency Index score is 54. This week we have seen increases in Europe, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and China (Chart 5). Australia, Brazil, Malaysia and Israel have eased restrictions.
Overall, China has the most stringent coronavirus-related restrictions in place. The EU4 of France, Italy, Spain and Germany are next but are 15% less stringent than during the first lockdown. New Zealand and Israel are currently the furthest away from their most stringent level of government action.
Market Correlations
Over the last month, equity markets started noticing rising cases and deaths. There is currently a negative correlation between the two (Chart 6). That is, markets move lower in countries where cases and deaths have risen.
We publish a weekly macro risk scorecard. It combines all our COVID-related data, from cases/deaths to mobility and stringency policies, to produce an overall COVID risk score. This week, Poland and Switzerland registered the highest overall scores – that is, they had the worst combination of COVID cases/deaths, mobility and lockdown rules. Equity markets are also correlating negatively with our overall score (Chart 7).
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)