2025 Grey Swans – The Complete List
- By Macro Hive
New Year, New Risks
Threats of nuclear war, Elon in government and a (brief) coup in South Korea – 2024 has already pushed the boundaries on grey swans: those massive, almost impossible to predict events. So, in our annual assessment of possible grey swans for 2025, we go the extra mile in stretching the imagination.
We discuss how monetary policy could be dictated by AI rather than humans, central banks cutting rates to zero, and the end of dollar dominance. If that is not punchy enough, how about the arrival of aliens! Enjoy the full list of 13 grey swans.
The List
1. Central Banks Become Independent (of Humans)
Central banks are increasingly using AI to inform policy decisions, but should they go further and delegate the entire process? After years of inflation shocks and reactive rate hikes, it may be time to let machines handle the complexities of monetary policy.
2. Dollar Loses Its Dominant Reserve Status
The US dollar has dominated global trade and central bank reserves since WWII. But with shifting geopolitics, declining trust in US-led systems, and Donald Trump’s return to the global stage, is dollar dominance on the brink of collapse?
3. Back to Zero Interest Rates Policy
Until recently, central banks were addicted to low interest rates. They boost asset prices, make funding the government easier and keep the public happy. So why are economists only expecting modest cuts in 2025?
4. The US Gets a Fiscal Surplus
The US faces a spiralling deficit, but could Elon Musk’s plans to curb spending and raise revenue rebalance the ship of state?
5. The UK Goes Back to the Polls
Almost 3mn people have signed a petition calling for a fresh general election. Only Kier Starmer holds the power to call one, but is there anything that could force his hand?
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s elite task force aimed to revolutionize US government spending. But as optimism faded behind closed-door meetings, DOGE came up with its boldest proposal yet – ending the trade war with China.
7. PBoC and NDRC Jointly Declare 3% Inflation Target
As China faces economic gloom and mixed market sentiment, could a bold inflation target turn things around? Drawing lessons from Japan’s Abenomics, economists are calling on the PBoC to shift focus inward and reignite growth. Is 2025 the year of this transformation?
8. The US Expels 11mn Illegal Migrants
The Trump administration’s ambitious 2025 deportation program achieves its goal of expelling 11 million undocumented migrants. But the economy is left reeling from supply shortages, inflation, and political fallout.
With geopolitical pressures mounting and integration at a crossroads, could Germany step up as saviour of the Eurozone? A historic shift could see them embrace joint debt issuance to strengthen the bloc.
10. Next Year Will Be Out of This World
Speculation around UFOs is soaring, with possible revelations from governments, including the Trump administration, on the horizon. What might we learn, and how could it reshape our understanding of technology, geopolitics, and markets?
In 2025, the US revels in an inflationary boom, while the rest of the world suffers a deflationary bust. Geopolitical tensions and fractured supply chains create a stark economic divide, leaving global markets uncertain and highly volatile.
12. Best of Frenemies? Powell Makes a Pal at the White House
On 24 December 2025, Treasury Secretary Bessent gives Fed Chair Powell a surprising gift: Jerry Garcia’s Gibson guitar. But what on earth could have prompted such a friendship?
13. Man City to Finish Eighth and Miss Out on Europe Entirely
With injuries to key players, poor form, and rising competition, Manchester City’s path to recovery looks increasingly uncertain. Is an eighth-place Premier League finish on the cards?
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