This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here.
Could 2025 Be the Year of UAPs?
You may be forgiven for not knowing what UAPs are. They are ‘unidentified anomalous phenomena’: objects observed in the air, sea, and space that are difficult to explain. The US Pentagon uses the term as an extension of the more familiar ‘UFO’s (unidentified flying objects) to include observations in near-space and underwater.
The best-known examples include the 1947 Roswell incident and the Phoenix Lights sightings in 1997. More recently, unidentified objects swarming sensitive US military sites have come under question.
If that is not interesting enough, we could throw in the topic of non-human intelligence (NHI). This is an updated, extended term that encompasses previous references to extraterrestrial activities – and, yes, aliens, even though some include AI in it, too.
Why Now?
Aside from it being outlook time and that conspiracism is on the march, some would say in charge, the latest US Congressional hearing on the subject was just a few weeks ago. It followed several previous hearings by the US Congress and other government agencies.
Also, a perception exists that UAP sightings and reports are happening more often. That could be true, or perhaps people are simply more interested in them.
Meanwhile, some analysts, such as US geopolitical advisor Harald Malmgren, have been speculating that US President Trump may disclose information about UAPs, and that China or Russia may follow suit or pre-empt the US in a way that would give new meaning to the ‘space race.’
What Could We Learn?
For starters, the US and several other governments now provide information on UAPs, such as in the Department of Defense Annual Report on UAPs. The November 2024 document noted that it received 757 reports of UAP sightings over the preceding year. The reports also include summary analysis of how to interpret these phenomena, their potential threat level, and summarise government activity on these issues.
The gist of these reports leans towards conventional explanations for the sightings. For aerial objects, they typically cite conventional objects, such as drones or balloons, or optical illusions. They also usually suggest the threat level is low, even though the sightings around sensitive US sites have raised concern. But that has not stopped mainstream media giving the issue increasing coverage.
Meanwhile, the lively community of UAP observers and commentators suspect there is much more to UAPs and NHI than these conventional explanations. And crucially, they think governments know this and have withheld information – after all, there is a long history of government secrecy and misinformation around supposed UAP sightings.
Now, speculation centres on what the Trump government may disclose both about sightings and what governments have already made sense of or even reverse engineered.
The Tails Are Underpriced
We entered H2 2024 thinking the tails were underpriced. That thesis is bound to get a new life (form) in 2025. Letting out imagination run wild, potential outcomes vary from a blissful future of abundance powered by extraterrestrially inspired innovations to eradication or enslavement by intergalactic competitors.
Along the way, that could imply the availability of new, superior materials and/or technologies (most discussed in the context of energy supply and air transport). These would provide a huge leg up to those that possess them and conversely threaten the incumbents – be they companies or governments.
It all sounds pretty disruptive to us, so there must at least be a UAP-themed ETF available. And indeed, there is: UFO, which invests in space-focused equities and handily also aims to ‘provide diversification beyond the limitations of solely earthbound companies.’ It is up 30% in 2024, slightly outperforming the S&P. When it comes to investing, the sky is no longer the limit in 2025.