This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here.
Football Focus
My Grey Swan this year focuses on the plight of Manchester City.
My low probability, maximum impact call for the reigning Premier League champions is that the Citizens will finish eighth in the English topflight and will therefore not qualify for any European competition next season.
Manchester City’s Form Has Deteriorated This Season
After pipping Arsenal to the post last season to win the league, and winning the Community Shield curtain raiser in August, City’s form has been mixed.
They started very strongly, winning their four opening league fixtures, and topping the table for the first month or so.
Then Rodri got injured.
They have since dropped more points (16) than they have gained (11), been eliminated from the English Football League (EFL) Cup, and have endured their biggest losing streak (five games) in several decades.
Rodri Injury Has Been a HUGE Challenge
Rodri’s injury has derailed City’s season, and their form without the 2024 Ballon D’Or winner has been abysmal.
Many pundits say ‘City have no legs in midfield,’ which to me is code for ‘without Rodri, City are bang average.’
Pep Has Admitted All Is Not Well
After their most recent Champions League game, where City conceded three goals in the final 15 minutes, blowing a 3-0 lead to draw 3-3 against Feyenoord (at home), Pep Guardiola said Man City’s poor defensive form shows the team was ‘not stable’ and ‘fragile’.
Clearly, Rodri’s injury is a big part of City’s defensive instability.
Moreover, defender Ruben Dias and Rodri’s replacement Mateo Kovacic, have also been injured, in addition to more attack-minded players Kevin de Bruyne and Jeremy Doku.
Plus, last season’s Premier League Player of the Season and the PFA Players’ Player of the Year, Phil Foden, has been a passenger so far this season.
Manchester City’s Rivals are ‘Coming for Them’
City’s drop in form has coincided with their main title rivals gathering momentum and overtaking them in the table.
Pace-setters Liverpool have been on fire this season and will be tough for anybody to catch.
Last season’s runners-up Arsenal have had their own mini wobble between the October and November international breaks but have steadied the ship and performed impressively the past week or two, as some key players have returned from injury.
Meanwhile, Chelsea have looked very impressive under their new manager, after a rebuilding period following their change in ownership in 2022.
Brighton have jumped ahead of Man City in the table, and have performed well, also under a new manager. Brighton defeated the reigning champions during City’s recent five-game losing streak.
Tottenham defeated City twice in that run, once in the League and eliminating them from the EFL Cup and, although Spurs have been woefully inconsistent, they could very easily develop positive momentum and overtake City in the table.
When you add Manchester United (resurgent under a new manager), Saudi-backed Newcastle United (who also took points off City this season), plus surprise package Fulham and long shots Nottingham Forest and Brentford, the number of clubs closing the gap on fifth-placed City is numerous. And that list does not include Aston Villa, who have faltered lately, but may rally from twelth place.
Pep Is Feeling the Heat, While His Team Flounders
After Liverpool beat Man City 2-0 at Anfield on 1 December (a scoreline that did not flatter the hosts), the home fans mocked Guardiola with the chant ‘You’re Getting Sacked in the Morning!’
In response, Guardiola held up six fingers, presumably a reference to the number of Premier League titles he has led Man City to, and not the number of games his team have lost over the past month or so.
Many pundits have praised Pep for this gesturing, reminding his detractors of Man City’s pedigree and dominance of English football since he took over the blue half of Manchester.
My take is slightly different.
It is sad and quite telling, to see a manager as successful as Guardiola rising to the bait from opposing fans, having to lean on past glories when his team was being outclassed.
It smacks of desperation, and of a manager who cannot stop the rot.
An Eighth Place Finish Beckons
Conventional wisdom (i.e., the bookmakers’ odds) still says City will finish in the top four, securing their place in the Champions’ League.
It is therefore a longshot, fitting for one of our Grey Swan pieces, to predict Manchester City will finish outside the European qualifying places.
City will surely spend big in the January transfer window, steadying the ship and put achieving a winning run.
That may not go to plan, however.
New signings take time to bed in and, no matter who they sign, it will be almost impossible to replace Rodri, the best midfielder in the world.
There are no easy answers to City’s current malaise.
They have looked out of ideas, not only against Liverpool, but ever since Rodri has been injured. The longer their winless streak continues, the harder it will be to get the team back on track.
As a result, and as unlikely as it seems now, after such a successful period under Guardiola, recent form suggests Manchester City will not play European football next season.