A Long Recovery Ahead in Asia

We track scheduled flights (what’s planned) and tracked flights (what took off) from a sample of the largest airports across the world.

Looking at data up to 30 May April, we find the following: 

• Global flights are at 82.7% of 2019 levels and currently at 98.5k per day, the most departures per day in 2022 (Chart 1). Moreover, there has been a 182% year-on-year increase in international tourism with it gathering pace through March.
• Shanghai’s recovery is setting the tone for China, departures are up 29.8% WoW following the beginning of its formal reopening on 1 June. Meanwhile, departures have near doubled from the April low while they are only up 7% from Beijing over the same period. As it stands, Shanghai airport is operating at 15% of pre-COVID levels while Beijing airport is operating at 21% of pre-COVID levels (Chart 4). However, an increase in flights doesn’t mean an increase in passenger travel; passenger load is at 63.2%, before COVID-19 it resided above 80% (Chart A1). Overall, China has some way to go in terms of recovery (Chart A2), though this is March data.

• Japan will reopen on 10 June and will allow travellers from 98 countries to enter the country. Visits will initially be restricted to those part of packaged tour groups. Second, Japan currently has a 20k-visitor limit per day, though they are considering extending this to 30k visitors per day. Last, the ability to enter the country depends on the country you depart from. Those departing from the UK and US will need only a pre-departure PCR test and may skip quarantine. Flights from Haneda International Airport are operating at 87% of pre-COVID levels, the rest of the country has seen a more subdued recovery in flights (Chart A3).

• Brits to suffer at the hands of Brexit as Spain removes entry measures for EU nationals, but not for Briton, while a total of 20 EU/EEA countries have lifted their COVID-19 entry restrictions. The region has seen departures increase over the past week, up 1.1%, with Munich (+5.2% WoW), Rome (+2.2% WoW), and Frankfurt (1.7%) leading the increase. Overall, seven of the nine airports we track across Europe are now operating at above 90% of pre-COVID levels.
• For more information on recent changes in COVID cases, please see our weekend report by Dominique and Henry.

Information on long-term movements in flight data is available at the bottom of the page.

US

UK

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

Canada

China

Japan

Hong Kong

South Korea

Singapore

Thailand

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)