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By Bilal Hafeez 01-07-2020
In: post | Newsletter

Deep Dive: US Unemployment Is Calculated Wrong+ Exclusive: 5 Biggest Geopolitical Risks

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(total reading time: 2 min)

A new Fed paper finds that US labour data could be calculated incorrectly. The true measure suggests that US unemployment has on average been 2pp higher since 2001. Add that to the list of things to worry about when US payrolls comes out tomorrow.

We asked Dominique Dwor-Frecaut to pick her top five geopolitical risks over the next twelve months. Let us know whether you agree.



US Labour Market Data Is Calculated Incorrectly (8 min read) A provocative new paper argues that US labour market data contains several biases that systematically understate the level of unemployment in the US. The authors find that correcting for the biases results in the US unemployment rate being 2ppt higher on average since 2001.

(Sam van de Schootbrugge │ 1st July, 2020)




World Leaders


Five Major Geopolitical Risks Over The Next 12 Months (4 min read) COVID will have a long-term impact on the global economy, but other geopolitical risks could also have significant macro and financial market implications. I list my top five risks for the next 12 months and the likely market impact.

(Dominique Dwor-Frecaut │ 1st July, 2020)





(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)