(total reading time: 2 min)
A new Fed paper finds that US labour data could be calculated incorrectly. The true measure suggests that US unemployment has on average been 2pp higher since 2001. Add that to the list of things to worry about when US payrolls comes out tomorrow.
We asked Dominique Dwor-Frecaut to pick her top five geopolitical risks over the next twelve months. Let us know whether you agree.
US Labour Market Data Is Calculated Incorrectly (8 min read) A provocative new paper argues that US labour market data contains several biases that systematically understate the level of unemployment in the US. The authors find that correcting for the biases results in the US unemployment rate being 2ppt higher on average since 2001.
(Sam van de Schootbrugge │ 1st July, 2020)
Five Major Geopolitical Risks Over The Next 12 Months (4 min read) COVID will have a long-term impact on the global economy, but other geopolitical risks could also have significant macro and financial market implications. I list my top five risks for the next 12 months and the likely market impact.
(Dominique Dwor-Frecaut │ 1st July, 2020)
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