China’s Economic Growth has Halved—and It is Set to Halve Again (Prospect Magazine, 3 min read)

(You can read the article by clicking here)

Are China’s recent US trade war woes the sole culprit for its slowing GDP growth? In this commentary, George Magnus, a former chief economist at UBS, argues that there are underlying, homemade structural issues at play that appear destructive: the economy is predicted to halve again in five years. Why? Both components of long term growth – productivity and labour force population – are declining, leading trend GDP to slow to 3%. Magnus links this to bureaucracy and the ubiquitous party control, causing restrains to the freedom of the private sector and inefficient markets. Further, after the 2015 Renminbi crisis, the government got serious about deleveraging and limited the credit capacity of large and small borrowers alike. With high debt levels having fuelled growth for a long time, it’s a sobering experience to see growth now sliding off.  ‘No surprise employment’ has been every policy meeting’s top priority – as the above piece draws attention toNow, if we combine the US trade and tech war with China’s issues at home, the worry is understandable.

Why does this matter? While most expect Chinese growth will fall even if a trade deal is achieved, Magnus is more bearish.  He therefore expects even more dovish actions by Chinese policymakers than the current fine-tuning policies of lower Reserve Ratio Requirements and tax cuts.

Smart home tech makes inroads into China’s emerging elderly care market (Reuters, 4 min read)

August 16, 2019

Inside China’s vast influence network – how it works, and its reach in Australia (The Conversation, 4 min read)

August 16, 2019

Stimulus Prep or Prelude to Deflationary Crisis: China Tightening Screws on Real Estate (Investing in Chinese stocks, 4 min read)

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Hong Kong protests: history lessons for Beijing from British colonial era uprising (The Conversation, 4 min read)

August 16, 2019

China’s AI Talent Base Is Growing, and then Leaving (Macro Polo, 3 min read)

August 16, 2019

Chinese Universities Need to Attract More Foreign Students, But Not by Treating Them Differently (SCMP, 3 min read)

August 9, 2019

The Messy Truth About Social Credit (Logic Magazine, 10 min read)

August 9, 2019

New China Tariffs Increase Costs to U.S. Households (Liberty Street Economics, 4 min read)

August 9, 2019

The Real Reason for China’s Rise (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)

August 9, 2019

U.S. Breaking Promises is Setting New Obstacles for Trade Talks with China (People’s Daily, 3 min read)

August 9, 2019

To Feed its 1.4 billion, China Bets Big on Genome Editing of Crops (Science Magazine, 7 min read)

August 1, 2019

China’s Long View (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)

August 1, 2019

How the U.S. Could Lose a War with China (The Atlantic, 3 min read)

August 1, 2019

China Makes Concession on US Farm Goods in ‘Frank’ and ‘Constructive’ Talks (SCMP, 4 min read)

August 1, 2019

Beijing Axes Individual Travel Visas for Chinese Tourists Visiting Taiwan (Taiwan News, 3 min read)

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(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

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