Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Fed Tracker: Chair Powell Turns Hawkish
- By Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
- 2 min read
Summary Of Key Issues
At his bi-annual testimony to Congress, Chair Powell indicated that the March SEP terminal FFR was likely to increase and that if ‘the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes’.
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
Summary Of Key Issues
At his bi-annual testimony to Congress, Chair Powell indicated that the March SEP terminal FFR was likely to increase and that if ‘the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes’.
A 50bp hike at the March meeting is therefore likely if the data continues to paint the picture of accelerating growth and no disinflation. Key releases before the 22 March FOMC will be the NFP and CPI. I think NFP above 250,000 and CPI core MoM above 40bp could lead to a 50bp hike.
Current Fed Forecast
Recent FOMC Comments
Markets Still Underpricing Fed
Economic Data Calls for Additional Fed Tightening