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Nine New Speaker Candidates
Last Friday, House Republicans cast aside Trump-backed Representative Jim Jordan as their nominee for Speaker, after he failed three times to get elected.
Over the weekend, nine Representatives threw their names into the ring. Of these, six voted in support of former-Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s Continuing Resolution and seven voted to object to certifying President Joe Biden’s victory in at least one state.
Because of the Republican conference’s voting rules, whittling down their number to a single candidate could take a week or so. Then there is no guarantee that the Representative chosen will garner the 217 votes required from the whole House.
Marginally Lower Shutdown Risks
After former-Speaker McCarthy was voted out of office on 3 October, the Republicans appointed Representative Patrick McHenry as Speaker pro tem, a position created after 9/11 to ensure continuity of government in the event the Speaker was killed or incapacitated. The position has never been tested and so far Representative McHenry has interpreted his role narrowly, mainly as presiding over the election of a new Speaker. An internal Republican resolution to empower him to bring bills to the floor, including new government funding, was under consideration last week but faced enough Republican opposition that it was shelved.
With the 17 November deadline to fund the government approaching, and growing pressure to fund American support to Ukraine and Israel, the resolution is likely to get discussed again if no Speaker can be elected on time.
On balance, I still expect no shutdown but with low conviction. A Republican decision to continue funding the government would balance the risk from a shutdown to the Republican’s 2024 prospects against hard-right Republicans personal electoral prospects. Over time, hard-right Republicans are likely to realize that they are better off with a stronger party and some compromise than otherwise but this could take time. The Israel-Hamas war is on the margin lowering the risk of shutdown because there is stronger Republican consensus on support to Israel than to Ukraine.
Please see data on previous shutdown duration here.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist based in Southern California. She has worked on EM and DMs at hedge funds, on the sell side, the NY Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She joined Macro Hive soon after its inception.
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