Trade Ideas Survey: Post Holiday Season Reshuffle for Survey Participants
- By Viresh Kanabar
- 2 min read
As the holiday season ends, there is no obvious theme to the trades added by our participants. Participant 5 re-added their short LVMH trade, as the valuation looks stretched, while the Chinese consumer struggles.
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Responses were collected on 31 August.
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As the holiday season ends, there is no obvious theme to the trades added by our participants. Participant 5 re-added their short LVMH trade, as the valuation looks stretched, while the Chinese consumer struggles.
Sticking with equities, Participant 7 added a long Apple – in anticipation of a successful launch of the iPhone 15. More frequent product cycles along with strong pricing power have been a powerful driver of Apple’s stock, which is currently trading at 29x forward earnings. Participant 7 also closed their long Copper trade.
Meanwhile, Participant 15 added a more tactical trade this week. They are now short TYZ3. Participant 15 sees US growth and employment holding up, which should cause inflation to come in higher than expected later this year. Lastly, Participant 16 took profit on their long EUR/USD and long Cable trade following a 5% move in their favour over the last couple of weeks.
Bilal’s Trades and Views
We made one change to our portfolio this week. Henry closed his long 10Y Bonos vs OAT trade yesterday. Given elevated risks around Eurozone data in the near term, we think the r/r is less attractive here. While the trade did not move in our favour, it did not lose us money either as performance was broadly flat.
Here are our current trades:
DM
- 2s5s Gilt Steepener – read here.
- Short US10Y vs. USD Hedged 10Y JGBs – read here.
- GBP/CAD 6M 1.69×1.62 Put Spread – read here.
- Short RBA Nov-23 vs. Long RBA Sep-24 (target 20bps) – read here.
- Long US 5-year TIPS – read here.
- Pay 1Yx1Y US OIS vs 1Yx1Y SONIA (target 100bp) – read here.
- Short UK 10Y Inflation Swap (target 3.65%; stop 4.0%) – read here.
- Short 10Y Treasury vs. 10Y Bunds – read here.
- Long 1yx1y receiver swaption with a 1yx1y pay fixed swap positions – read here.
- Pay 6M forward 1Y EUR OIS (target: 4%) – read here.
EM
EM FX Trades
- Short USD/IDR 3M NDF (target: 14,000) – read here.
- Short EUR/CZK (target: 23.25) read here.
- Short SGD/THB into Thai elections (target: 24.75) – read here.
