01 December 2023 FX | Rates

Trade Ideas Survey – Participants Take Profit Following OPEC Cuts and Waller Comments

By Bilal Hafeez

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Macro Hive Network

It was a quiet week for our survey participants. Markets are continuing to digest the recent PCE data, as well as Waller’s recent comments and Q&A where he hinted rate cuts could be around the corner.

The main changes this week were driven by profit-taking.

Participant 5 took take profit on GBP/USD after a 3 big figure rally to 1.265. While Participant 10 is no longer receiving Brazilian DI as market pricing for the BCB has adjusted lower.

One new trade among our participants is from Participant 15 who is now short both oil and RBOB following the poor market reaction after further voluntary cuts were announced by OPEC+ yesterday. Meanwhile, Viresh thinks oil will be rangebound going forward, but is looking for opportunities on the long side around $75/ bbl.

Bilal’s Trades and Views

We added two trades this week.

Short 2m PHP/THB NDF (target 0.60; stop 0.6550) – read here.
Long 2m CNH/INR (target 12:20; stop 11.15) – read here.

DM

Rates

Long 10Y Bund vs 10Y BTP (target 200 bps; stop 155 bps) – read here.
Long 1y1y vs 2y3y SOFR – read here.
Receive May 2024 SONIA (target 25 bps cuts) – read here.
Long 10Y Gilt (FX hedged) vs short 10Y OAT (target -100 bps; stop -25 bps) – read here.
Pay Apr-24 EUR-OIS (target 0 bps) – read here.
SONIA and SOFR Mar24/Mar25 calendar box (target 0 bps) – read here.
5s10s UST steepener (target 15bps) – read here.
Pay 1Y1Y US OIS (target 5%) – read here.
Short US10Y vs USD hedged 10Y JGBs (target -450bps) – read here.

Equities

Long homebuilders and regional banks – read here.

EM

Short 2m PHP/THB NDF (target 0.60; stop 0.6550) – read here.
Long 2m CNH/INR (target 12:20; stop 11.15) – read here.
Long EUR/CZK (target 25:60; stop: 24:00) – read here.

Rates

Receive BRL DI K25 (target 9.50%; stop 10.80%) – read here.
Receive 5Y ZAR swap (target 7.50%; stop 8.75%) – read here.

Commodities

GCK4 $1,850 put option – read here.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

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Trade Ideas Survey

Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Warm Up to GPB Winter Outlook

24 November 2023

Viresh Kanabar
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Trade Ideas Survey

Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Look to Start Receiving Rates

17 November 2023

Viresh Kanabar
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Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Split on USD/JPY Views, Are 1Y 165 Calls Cheap?

10 November 2023

Viresh Kanabar
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03 November 2023

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Trade Ideas Survey – Participants Take Profit Following OPEC Cuts and Waller Comments

Macro Hive Network

Bilal’s Trades and Views

DM

EM

Commodities

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Trade Ideas Survey – Participants Take Profit Following OPEC Cuts and Waller Comments

Macro Hive Network

Bilal’s Trades and Views

DM

EM

Commodities

Enter your email to read this Macro Hive Exclusive

Your comments

Cancel reply

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Cancellation Confirmed

Discount Applied