03 November 2023 Equities | FX | Rates

Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Ditch the Dollar As Risk On Dominates

By Viresh Kanabar

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Responses were collected on 3 November 2023.

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The macro environment has changed. Risk-off driven by higher bond yields has given way to risk-on as the treasury decided to issue fewer coupon bonds, while NFP surprised lower.

In line with this, we see long USD positions vanishing and outright shorts being put on in some cases.

For instance, Participant 7 is no longer short USD/MXN while also taking profit on short GBP. Participant 15 added a new short USD trade against a basket of KRW, SGD, and CNH. Mirza agrees, he’s recently reversed his long USD/INR trade into a short, while also adding a new USD/MXN short.

On the equity side, we see views being more mixed. Participant 16 is playing the risk-on environment and the positive seasonality in equities to by going long S&P 500 (ESZ3). John Tierney has a similar view but has expressed this via the homebuilders and the regional banks – both of which have been incredibly rate sensitive. Similarly, Participant 11’s short ES trade has been closed after it hit their trailing stop, while Participant 5 is choosing to go the other way and has entered a new short in Apple after earnings disappointed this week.

Bilal’s Trades and Views

Here is the full list of our existing trades:

DM

GCK4 $1,850 put option – read here.
Long EUR/GBP (target 0.896; stop 0.858) – read here.
5s10s UST steepener (target 15bps) – read here.
Long USD vs European basket – read here.
Pay 1Y1Y US OIS (target 5%) – read here.
Short US10Y vs USD hedged 10Y JGBs (target -450bps) – read here.
Pay Apr-24 EUR-OIS (target 0 bps) – read here.
Long homebuilders and regional banks – read here.
SONIA and SOFR Mar24/Mar25 calendar box (target 0 bps) – read here.

EM

Short 1m USD/INR (target: 82:20; stop: 83.70) – read here.
Long EUR/CZK (target 25:60; stop: 24:00) – read here.
Short USD/MXN (target 17.0 stop 18.50) – read here.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

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Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Ditch the Dollar As Risk On Dominates

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Bilal’s Trades and Views

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Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Ditch the Dollar As Risk On Dominates

Macro Hive Network

Bilal’s Trades and Views

DM

EM

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