29 September 2023 Equities | FX | Rates

Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Continue to Build Bullish USD Bets

By Viresh Kanabar
2 min read

The core theme around being bullish USD continues to gain momentum. Participant 16 added long USD/JPY due to the attractive risk-reward given the potential that US rates have likely peaked.

This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.

Responses were collected on 28 September.

Macro Hive Network

The core theme around being bullish USD continues to gain momentum. Participant 16 added long USD/JPY due to the attractive risk-reward given the potential that US rates have likely peaked. While we are more neutral on JPY, we are long USD against a basket of European currencies. Participant 16 also took profit on short EUR/GBP after it moved up by 1 sig. figure.

Elsewhere, Participant 15 closed their short TYZ3 trade, while Participant 2 took profit on long gilts vs. FX-hedged USTs.

Bilal’s Trades and Views

Here are our current trades:

Current Trades

DM

5s10s UST steepener (target 15bps) – read here.

Long EUR/CHF (target 1.02) – read here.

Long USD vs. European Basket – read here.

Pay 1y1y US OIS (target 5%) – read here.

2s5s Gilt steepener (target -30bps) – read here.

Short US10Y vs. USD Hedged 10Y JGBs – read here.

Short RBA Nov-23 vs. Long RBA Sep-24 (target 20bps) – read here.

Long US 5-year TIPS – read here.

Short UK 10Y Inflation Swap (target 3.65%; stop 4.0%) – read here.

Long 1yx1y receiver swaption with a 1yx1y pay fixed swap positions – read here.

EM

Long 3m USD/INR (target: 85.50; stop: 82.0) – read here.

Long 1m USD/TWD NDF (target 32.80; stop 31.60) – read here.

Viresh Kanabar has worked in the UK financial services industry for over 8 years including in Consulting and Investment Risk. Most recently he launched The Macro Journal Substack where he puts out regular in-depth reports covering all areas of global macro.

Photo Credit: depositphotos.com

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

Your comments

Cancel reply

Please sign-up for a Macro Hive account then log in to leave your comments.

array(17) { [0]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "hive-model" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131299) } [1]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "weekly-investment" ["cpt_image"]=> int(132823) } [2]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(14) "views-analysis" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [3]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(13) "bilals-points" ["cpt_image"]=> int(135792) } [4]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "bilals-macroscope" ["cpt_image"]=> int(127923) } [5]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(19) "global-rates-weekly" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [6]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(65996) } [7]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134235) } [8]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(20) "centralbank-monitors" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136307) } [9]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134128) } [10]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(15) "emerging-trends" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66000) } [11]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "key-events" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66001) } [12]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(16) "asset-allocation" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131366) } [13]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [14]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(18) "charts-of-the-week" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134094) } [15]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(11) "commodities" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [16]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(12) "global-rates" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } }

Trade Ideas Survey

Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Flip Bearish on Equities Despite Dovish Fed

17 December 2023

Viresh Kanabar
array(17) { [0]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "hive-model" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131299) } [1]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "weekly-investment" ["cpt_image"]=> int(132823) } [2]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(14) "views-analysis" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [3]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(13) "bilals-points" ["cpt_image"]=> int(135792) } [4]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "bilals-macroscope" ["cpt_image"]=> int(127923) } [5]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(19) "global-rates-weekly" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [6]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(65996) } [7]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134235) } [8]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(20) "centralbank-monitors" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136307) } [9]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134128) } [10]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(15) "emerging-trends" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66000) } [11]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "key-events" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66001) } [12]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(16) "asset-allocation" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131366) } [13]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [14]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(18) "charts-of-the-week" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134094) } [15]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(11) "commodities" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [16]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(12) "global-rates" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } }

Trade Ideas Survey

Trade Ideas Survey – Participants Take Profit Following OPEC Cuts and Waller Comments

01 December 2023

Bilal Hafeez
array(17) { [0]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "hive-model" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131299) } [1]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "weekly-investment" ["cpt_image"]=> int(132823) } [2]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(14) "views-analysis" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [3]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(13) "bilals-points" ["cpt_image"]=> int(135792) } [4]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "bilals-macroscope" ["cpt_image"]=> int(127923) } [5]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(19) "global-rates-weekly" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [6]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(65996) } [7]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134235) } [8]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(20) "centralbank-monitors" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136307) } [9]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134128) } [10]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(15) "emerging-trends" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66000) } [11]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "key-events" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66001) } [12]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(16) "asset-allocation" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131366) } [13]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [14]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(18) "charts-of-the-week" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134094) } [15]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(11) "commodities" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [16]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(12) "global-rates" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } }

Trade Ideas Survey

Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Warm Up to GPB Winter Outlook

24 November 2023

Viresh Kanabar
array(17) { [0]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "hive-model" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131299) } [1]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "weekly-investment" ["cpt_image"]=> int(132823) } [2]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(14) "views-analysis" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [3]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(13) "bilals-points" ["cpt_image"]=> int(135792) } [4]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "bilals-macroscope" ["cpt_image"]=> int(127923) } [5]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(19) "global-rates-weekly" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [6]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(65996) } [7]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134235) } [8]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(20) "centralbank-monitors" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136307) } [9]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134128) } [10]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(15) "emerging-trends" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66000) } [11]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "key-events" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66001) } [12]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(16) "asset-allocation" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131366) } [13]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [14]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(18) "charts-of-the-week" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134094) } [15]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(11) "commodities" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [16]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(12) "global-rates" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } }

Trade Ideas Survey

Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Look to Start Receiving Rates

17 November 2023

Viresh Kanabar

Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now

Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Continue to Build Bullish USD Bets

Macro Hive Network

Bilal’s Trades and Views

Current Trades

DM

EM

Viresh Kanabar has worked in the UK financial services industry for over 8 years including in Consulting and Investment Risk. Most recently he launched The Macro Journal Substack where he puts out regular in-depth reports covering all areas of global macro.

Photo Credit: depositphotos.com

Enter your email to read this Macro Hive Exclusive

Your comments

Cancel reply

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Trade Ideas Survey: Participants Continue to Build Bullish USD Bets

Macro Hive Network

Bilal’s Trades and Views

Current Trades

DM

EM

Viresh Kanabar has worked in the UK financial services industry for over 8 years including in Consulting and Investment Risk. Most recently he launched The Macro Journal Substack where he puts out regular in-depth reports covering all areas of global macro.

Photo Credit: depositphotos.com

Enter your email to read this Macro Hive Exclusive

Your comments

Cancel reply

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Cancellation Confirmed

Discount Applied