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By Alamin Hussain 30-06-2020
In: top-picks | Politics

Amundi on how to play the US election and how the pandemic creates difficulties for the IMF

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America Didn’t Give Up on Covid-19. Republicans Did. (NYT, 6 min read) Rising COVID cases in Republican-controlled states,  such as Arizona, Florida and Texas, reflect Republicans brushing aside public health advice and rushing to reopen the economy according to Paul Krugman. Blue states, on the other hand, have low cases as democrats are promoting social distancing, and wearing a face mask. [Bullish Democrats]

Biden’s election momentum and financial markets (Amundi, 12 min read) The market is not pricing in the risk of Biden as president or ‘Democratic sweep of Congress’. With the uncertainty of the election outcome, Amundi prefer US Agency mortgage bonds and TIPS to neutralise any interest rate risk associated if new administration came in power. They project Biden’s tax reform would reduce S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2021 from an average of $170 to $150 per share.

IMF’s epic virus challenge (OMFIF, 4 min read) The IMF risks a situation where it cannot lend freely due to budgetary constraints. Financing gaps would require difficult judgement and conflicts of interest with the private sector on debt relief could arise.