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What a week! The UK announced it’s third general election in five years. The Fed cut rates but was reluctant to signal further easing. Hedge fund managers Paul Tudor Jones and Steve Cohen voiced their concerns over a possible Elizabeth Warren win in next year’s US Presidential election. And of course, it’s Halloween today.
We touch on all of these topics in today’s letter. I drew parallels between Boris Johnson and King Henry VIII in terms of breaking away from a European super-structure. US rates guru, George Goncalves, lays out the roadmap for the Fed with his DEFCON signaling system. Seasoned markets analyst, Gary Licht, concludes his series on the return of left-wing populism with the long-term reasons why US politics will likely shift to the left.
Finally, I pick eleven charts that will scare you about the current level of equities, Chinese growth, Europe’s future and more.
Boris Johnson Is Using The Henry VIII Playbook (4 min read) While Johnson may see himself as a modern-day Churchill, the better comparison may actually be with Henry VIII. The Tudor Monarch initiated the break of the “EU” of the day but eventually he wasn’t able to stabilise the British political order during his lifetime or after. Will Boris Johnson do a better job?
( Bilal Hafeez | 28th October, 2019 )
FOMC: Cutting Interest Rates Again – Third Time’s The Charm? (4 min read) In light of the third Fed cut for the year yesterday, rates expert George Goncalves offers his in-depth insight into its consequences. He uses a DEFCON system (a term borrowed from the US Armed Forces) to characterize the state of readiness for Fed easing.
( George Goncalves | 30th October, 2019 )
Five Reasons Why America’s Future Belongs to the Left (5 min read) Last week, seasoned markets analyst Gary Licht analysed the likely return of the US to left-wing populism; this week, he explores a number of reasons why without the subversion of democracy, the US appears destined to drift towards the left for a host of economic, demographic, and cultural reasons.
( Gary Licht | 31st October, 2019 )