US COVID cases have finally breached 1,000 cases, which is a 600% increase from a week ago. We think the cases could easily reach 50,000 cases if the US ends up following the Korea path. We discuss this and the explosion in searches for “hand sanitizer” in our latest COVID tracker.
On the subject of pandemics, our featured Deep Dive this week is on an excellent 2007 paper which reviewed the best measures to slow pandemics during the 1918 Spanish flu. Turns out early and layered interventions (no public gatherings, quarantines, school closures) make a huge difference.
Also, central banks continue to act to stabilise markets. Today, it was the Bank of England cutting rates and tomorrow it will likely be the ECB. Former DB economist, Caroline Grady, writes on the ECB’s possible options. But we can’t fool ourselves into thinking that rate cuts can slow a pandemic – this may be one crisis where central banks cannot bail out markets.
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(total reading time: 3 mins)
US COVID cases have finally breached 1,000 cases, which is a 600% increase from a week ago. We think the cases could easily reach 50,000 if the US ends up following the Korea path. We discuss this and the explosion in searches for “hand sanitizer” in our latest COVID tracker.
On the subject of pandemics, our featured Deep Dive this week is on an excellent 2007 paper which reviewed the best measures to slow pandemics during the 1918 Spanish flu. Turns out early and layered interventions (no public gatherings, quarantines, school closures) make a huge difference.
Also, central banks continue to act to stabilise markets. Today, it was the Bank of England cutting rates and tomorrow it will likely be the ECB. Former DB economist, Caroline Grady, writes on the ECB’s possible options. But we can’t fool ourselves into thinking that rate cuts can slow a pandemic – this may be one crisis where central banks cannot bail out markets.
Enjoy!
Bilal
• The US has reached over 1,000 cases now, which is a 600% increase from a week ago. If the US was to reach (best case) Singapore per capita levels, the US could end up with 9,000 cases, whereas if it reaches Korea per capita levels, the US could reach 50,000 cases. Needless to say, we are just at the beginning of the pandemic.
• It is no surprise that searches for “hand sanitizer” have now surged in the US, which shows how the US has lagged other countries.
• In terms of the fastest recent growth of cases, Denmark, South Africa and Costa Rica are on top.
(Bilal Hafeez │ 11th March, 2020)
How Early And Sustained Social Distancing Helps Reduce Pandemic Risks (3 min read) Social distancing is currently considered one of the most effective mechanisms to control COVID-19. But what can history tell us about how well this type of nonpharmaceutical intervention works? Looking at US cities hit by the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919 – the deadliest pandemic on record – a 2007 paper funded by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reveals clear findings: social distancing is a good idea.
Specifically, some combination of quarantines, public gathering bans and school closures were effective in reducing the duration and scale of fatalities. Importantly, the results were best when interventions were implemented early and for a sustained basis even when infection rates were falling.
(Mehdi Farooq │ 11th March, 2020)
ECB: Under Pressure To Act (3 min read) On Thursday Christine Lagarde will face her toughest test yet as ECB President. The emergency rate cuts from both the Fed and Bank of England significantly increased pressure on the ECB to act. But with monetary policy edging closer to its limit, it faces a difficult task. Lagarde must ensure that the remaining space is used wisely. A comprehensive package using all the tools at the ECB’s disposal seems the most likely option.
(Caroline Grady │ 11th March, 2020)
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)