Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the headline is CPI and retail sales: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expects 0.3% MoM for core. I see upside risks due to April’s rising energy prices and strong demand backdrop. Sam’s model will give an early read. Yet even with a positive surprise, this CPI print alone is unlikely […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there are two main events: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (Monday): We expect it will still show increased credit demand, fewer banks tightening standards, and more banks willing to extend loans – another sign Fed tightening is not reaching the economy. U. Mich. Consumer confidence […]
5 researchers
We are updating our key events report. From now on, you will receive a short document to prepare you for the week ahead. This new form focuses on a curated list of data/events, as well as key central bank meetings and market views across G10 and EM. Key Events G10 In the US, there are […]
4 researchers
Skip to: US, Rest of G10, EM US With Dominique away this week, Antonio Del Favero covers the key US data for the coming days. Summary No Fed speakers next week as we enter the blackout period pre-FOMC (1 May). As expected, Fed speakers reacted to the third hot inflation print, confirming ‘no rush to […]
5 researchers
Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US With Dominique away, this week’s US section is covered by Macro Hive strategist Antonio Del Favero. Summary Inflation is no longer consistent with a June cut. I expect that only a recession can push inflation back down to target and below. Fed speakers will give their […]
5 researchers
Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US Summary March CPI and PPI are likely to be consistent with a June cut. Fed speakers will give their take on yet another bumper NFP. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to start cutting in June. Fed This week Chair Powell stated that ‘the recent […]
5 researchers
Note: Due to the upcoming holidays, this week’s Key Events covers an extended period, from 25 March to 5 April. Skip to: US, Europe, Rest of G10, EM US Summary February core PCE to support Fed narrative. NFP to show cooling wage growth but strong employment. Market Implications I expect the Fed to start cutting […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | Rest of G10 | Emerging Markets US Summary Fed to keep three 2024 cuts. Residential real estate data to show continued recovery. Market Implications A June cut is still my base case scenario. Fed I expect the Fed to stick to its narrative of continued if slower disinflation and three rate cuts in 2024. This […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary CPI and PPI likely show that disinflation is continuing. February retail sales likely show that January weakness was a blip. Market Implications We continue to expect the Federal Reserve to cut in June. Fed This week, Fed speakers continued to express their need for greater confidence on the disinflation path […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Powell’s testimony to Congress is likely to stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Both NFP and wages are likely to surprise on the upside. Market Implications A June cut is still my base case. Fed Fed speakers this week continued to stress that […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary PCE to confirm January inflation bump. Q4 GDP second estimate to show growth remains too hot for the Fed. Market Implications I still see a June cut as more likely than a May cut, in line with market pricing. Fed Fed speakers this week continued to signal cuts are not […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes to detail Fed requirements for a cut. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson to give first speech since November. Market Implications I still see a June cut as more likely than a May cut, in line with market pricing. Fed Fed speakers this week continued calling for […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Retail sales could surprise on the upside. CPI to remain at 0.3% core MoM. Market Implications I continue to think a March cut is unlikely – against markets pricing a 20% risk. The Fed expects disinflation to slow this year and will likely take a wait-and-see response to any rise […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary January services PMI to show increase relative to December. Household credit data to show recovery in mortgage borrowing. Market Implications After Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a March cut was not his base case, I no longer expect a cut. Fed As […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Fed to prepare markets for March rate cut. NFP to show continued labour market tightness. Market Implications Higher than I expected core PCE makes a 25bp cut marginally more likely than a 50bp cut at the March FOMC (my revised probabilities are 45% […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Core PCE to fall further away from the Fed’s 2% target. Q4 GDP could surprise on the upside but is likely to remain close to 2% trend. Market Implications I am still expecting, on balance, a 50bp cut at the March FOMC meeting, […]
5 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Retail sales could surprise on the upside. Import prices could start showing the impact of higher shipping costs. Market Implications Still expect a 50bp cut at the March FOMC meeting. Fed The CPI lowered my odds of a 50bp cut in March but […]
4 researchers
Jump to: US | Europe | Emerging Markets US Summary CPI to show continued disinflation. Small business survey to show resilient growth trends. Fed The Fed December FOMC marked a deep change in policy bias, and I have changed my Fed view accordingly. The Fed now seeks to ease to support growth and asset prices, and […]
4 researchers
US – Europe – Emerging Markets US Summary PCE to remain consistent with the Fed’s pivot. Personal Spending to surprise positively. Fed The Fed pivoted, not only in response to faster-than-expected disinflation but also as a result of a change in its reaction function. The Fed is now much more focused on growth, and possibly asset […]
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