MH Trade Summary – Booking Gains in Long Gold, Adding Short 10 and 30Y Gilts!

Current Trades

Portfolio Changes

We made several changes to our portfolio over the past week.

New trades:

1. Short 10 and 30Y Gilts (50% positions). We believe the BoE is set to keep rates on hold until the end of 2025, while fiscal risks may push long end yields higher.
2. Long June 26 SOFR (50% position) at 96.760. This ensures we maintain our steepener position in our model portfolio. The previous position was closed at a 5bps profit after the Fed.
3. Short 10Y UST (50% position). This forms the second leg of our US steepener trade.
4. Long 10y CGB vs. 10Y UST. We believe the BoC’s recent warnings regarding the supply side are overblown. This means incremental dovishness vs. the Fed is likely where the rates market may have moved too far.
5. Long BRL/JPY. Carry has done well this year, but we believe there’s more to go. Positioning is not yet extended while Fed cuts should support further flows into EM.

Closed trades:

1. Booked 8% profit on long Gold. The yellow metal is up almost 10% in a month and is looking extended again vs. trend. We believe the chance of a consolidation or correction from here are high.

Open Trades (Including Trade Notes)

DM

Rates

1. Long SOFR Jun 26 (50% position) (entry: 96.760, target: 97.050, stop: 96.600) – read here.
2. Short 10Y USTs (50% position) (entry: 4.130%, target: 4.510%, stop: 3.990%) – read here.
3. Short 10y Gilts (50% position) (entry: 4.700%, target: 5.000%, stop: 4.580%) – read here.
4. Short 30 Gilts (50% position) (entry: 5.540%, target: 5.900%, stop: 5.400%) – read here.
5. Long 10Y CGB vs. 10Y UST (entry: -0.937%, target: -1.200%, stop: -0.850%) – read here.

FX

1. Short DXY (50% position) (entry: 99.80, target: 90.00, stop: 103.50) – read here.
2. Long NOK/SEK (entry: 0.9415, target: 1.000, stop: 0.918) – read here.
3. Long EUR/GBP 1×1.25 15 October 0.8650×0.8590 put spread – read here.
4. Long GBP/NZD 1×1.25 15 October 2.2875×2.3 call spread – read here.
5. Tactically Long USD/JPY (50% position) (entry: 148.00, target: 152.00, stop: 146.50) – read here.
6. Long BRL/JPY (entry: 148.00, target: 152.00, stop: 146.50) – read here.

EM

FX

1. Short EUR/ZAR (entry: 20.670, target: 19.800, stop: 21.100) – read here.
2. Long EUR/PLN (50% position) (entry: 4.270, target: 4.450, stop: 4.180) – read here.

A record of our historic trades can be shared on request.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs. You are not permitted to publish, transmit, or otherwise reproduce this information, in whole or in part, in any format to any third party without the express written consent of Macro Hive. This includes providing or reproducing this information, in whole or in part, as a prompt.)