Will Bitcoin Plummet Again?
- By Bilal Hafeez and Dalvir Mandara
- 12 min read
Summary
Trading View (next 2-4 weeks): We are neutral-to-bearish bitcoin.
Investment View (next 1-3 years): We like to be long bitcoin.
Macro
- We expect the Fed to hike more than the market is currently pricing.
- Bitcoin remains positively correlated to equities and negatively correlated to the US2Y.
- The probability of recession within the next year remained at 70% on a deepening inversion of the 2s10s curve.
- The macro backdrop remains bearish.
On-Chain/Flow Signals
- Our metrics remained mixed this week: two bullish signals, two bearish, and two neutral.
Overall View
- With the macro backdrop still bearish, and our on-chain/flow signals neutral, our overall view is neutral-to-bearish bitcoin (Chart 1).
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.