Summary
- Global upstream Capex is increasing but remains a third below levels required to help rebalance acute oil market tightness.
- Producers, especially US independents, have not bought into the post-Covid price rally, keeping spending subdued (-50% vs 2014 peak).
- Mismatches between the speed of energy transition and supply-side underinvestment will result in sustained market volatility.
- Oil at $100 will become the norm, barring a severe recession.
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