How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
- By Bilal Hafeez and Dalvir Mandara
- 12 min read
Summary
Trading View (next 2-4 weeks): We like to be bearish bitcoin.
Investment View (next 1-3 years): We like to be long bitcoin.
Big Picture
- According to one valuation metric, crypto is undervalued.
- The bitcoin and equity correlation remains high.
- The probability of recession within the next 12 months is back up to 50%.
- The macro backdrop remains bearish.
On-Chain/Flow Signals
- Our metrics are split this week: one bullish signal, four bearish signals, one neutral signal.
Overall View
- With the macro backdrop still bearish, and our on-chain/flow signals bearish overall, our overall view remains bearish bitcoin (Chart 1).
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