02 October 2024 Economics & Growth | US

US Payrolls Model: Divergent Surprises Expected – Stronger NFP, But Higher UER Too

By Sam van de Schootbrugge

Subscribe to Macro Hive Professional to read this article

and enjoy exclusive professional features such as in-depth analysis, insightful op-eds, and more.

Already have Macro Hive Professional account? Log in

Your comments

Cancel reply

Please sign-up for a Macro Hive account then log in to leave your comments.

array(17) { [0]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "hive-model" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131299) } [1]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "weekly-investment" ["cpt_image"]=> int(132823) } [2]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(14) "views-analysis" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [3]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(13) "bilals-points" ["cpt_image"]=> int(135792) } [4]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "bilals-macroscope" ["cpt_image"]=> int(127923) } [5]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(19) "global-rates-weekly" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [6]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(65996) } [7]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134235) } [8]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(20) "centralbank-monitors" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136307) } [9]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134128) } [10]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(15) "emerging-trends" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66000) } [11]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "key-events" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66001) } [12]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(16) "asset-allocation" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131366) } [13]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [14]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(18) "charts-of-the-week" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134094) } [15]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(11) "commodities" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [16]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(12) "global-rates" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } }

Forecasting Models

US Inflation Model: Consensus Correct for Core CPI

11 November 2024

Sam van de Schootbrugge
array(17) { [0]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "hive-model" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131299) } [1]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "weekly-investment" ["cpt_image"]=> int(132823) } [2]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(14) "views-analysis" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [3]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(13) "bilals-points" ["cpt_image"]=> int(135792) } [4]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "bilals-macroscope" ["cpt_image"]=> int(127923) } [5]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(19) "global-rates-weekly" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [6]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(65996) } [7]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134235) } [8]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(20) "centralbank-monitors" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136307) } [9]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134128) } [10]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(15) "emerging-trends" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66000) } [11]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "key-events" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66001) } [12]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(16) "asset-allocation" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131366) } [13]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [14]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(18) "charts-of-the-week" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134094) } [15]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(11) "commodities" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [16]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(12) "global-rates" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } }

Forecasting Models

NFP Model: Downside Surprise Predicted Amid High Uncertainty

30 October 2024

Sam van de Schootbrugge
array(17) { [0]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "hive-model" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131299) } [1]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "weekly-investment" ["cpt_image"]=> int(132823) } [2]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(14) "views-analysis" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [3]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(13) "bilals-points" ["cpt_image"]=> int(135792) } [4]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "bilals-macroscope" ["cpt_image"]=> int(127923) } [5]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(19) "global-rates-weekly" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [6]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(65996) } [7]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134235) } [8]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(20) "centralbank-monitors" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136307) } [9]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134128) } [10]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(15) "emerging-trends" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66000) } [11]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "key-events" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66001) } [12]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(16) "asset-allocation" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131366) } [13]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [14]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(18) "charts-of-the-week" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134094) } [15]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(11) "commodities" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [16]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(12) "global-rates" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } }

Forecasting Models

PCE Model: Downside Surprise in Core MoM Predicted

29 October 2024

Sam van de Schootbrugge
array(17) { [0]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "hive-model" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131299) } [1]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "weekly-investment" ["cpt_image"]=> int(132823) } [2]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(14) "views-analysis" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [3]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(13) "bilals-points" ["cpt_image"]=> int(135792) } [4]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(17) "bilals-macroscope" ["cpt_image"]=> int(127923) } [5]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(19) "global-rates-weekly" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } [6]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(65996) } [7]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134235) } [8]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(20) "centralbank-monitors" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136307) } [9]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134128) } [10]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(15) "emerging-trends" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66000) } [11]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(10) "key-events" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66001) } [12]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(16) "asset-allocation" ["cpt_image"]=> int(131366) } [13]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(4) "post" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [14]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(18) "charts-of-the-week" ["cpt_image"]=> int(134094) } [15]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(11) "commodities" ["cpt_image"]=> int(66003) } [16]=> array(2) { ["select_cpt"]=> string(12) "global-rates" ["cpt_image"]=> int(136150) } }

Forecasting Models

US Inflation Model: Upside Surprise Predicted With High Conviction

08 October 2024

Sam van de Schootbrugge

Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now

US Payrolls Model: Divergent Surprises Expected – Stronger NFP, But Higher UER Too

Subscribe to Macro Hive Professional to read this article

Your comments

Cancel reply

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

US Payrolls Model: Divergent Surprises Expected – Stronger NFP, But Higher UER Too

Subscribe to Macro Hive Professional to read this article

Your comments

Cancel reply

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Cancellation Confirmed

Discount Applied