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MACRO · EQUITIES · FX · COMMODITIES · GEOPOLITICS
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Middle East remains tense and hostilities could easily restart and cause an oil price shock. Because the US is a net energy exporter, but oil producers’ spending is limited, an oil price shock would likely see US income increase but US spending decrease, which would improve the external balance. Because of a tighter […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The MPC voted for no change in bank rate (4.25%), as expected. Minimal statement changes included adding a clearer indication of ‘slack opening up’ in the UK economy. We still expect the BoE to cut again in August and cut to 3.5% this year. Market Implications We remain long SFIZ6 in our model portfolio, […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Richmond Fed has devised a recession indicator based on jobless claims that is more accurate and timelier than Sahm’s rule. Should continuing claims continue increasing at the pace of the past four weeks, the indicator would signal recession at end-October 2025. By contrast with 2008, this time a continued increase in claims would […]
Henry Occleston
Summary With no presser and no update to forecasts, the BoE’s policy announcement is unlikely to be eventful. While cracks continue growing in the UK economy, data has not derailed sufficiently enough for the BoE to change tack. We expect inflation to roughly align with May’s MPR: headline below consensus but core higher. We analyse […]
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Lauryn Enide
Senior Software Engineer at Microsoft
When tackling macro themes, I am faced with many challenges, such as the involvement of numerous variables and tons of related information, and Macro Hive helps me deal with this complexity. Human intelligence proves to still be ahead of AI and technology!
Lorenzo Lorenzi
Foundation Endowment Manager
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Etienne de Marsac
Head of Absolute Return at Sunny Asset Management
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy and sell side. Before moving to the US she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics.
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